The Forgotten Man of the Atlanta Hawks
By Brad Rowland
Dec 15, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Lou Williams (3) prepares to take a shot during the second half against the Golden State Warriors at Philips Arena. Warriors won 115-93. Warriors won 115-93. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports
In the midst of a whirlwind off-season that has included the better part of a complete roster transformation, there has been a clear case of a “forgotten man”. After signing an extremely cost-effective, 5-year contract with the Hawks before the 2012-2013 season, combo guard Lou Williams performed pretty well for the first few months of the campaign. However, he went down with a crippling knee injury (torn ACL) in January, and as a result, he seems to have slipped from the minds of Hawks nation.
Before the injury, Williams was producing in a highly effective way as a 6th man, and frankly, it was the role he was born to play in the league. In 39 games, he produced an above-average PER (15.9), shot the ball extremely well from long distance (36.7%), and produced per-36 minute averages (17.7 points, 4.5 assists) that would have rightfully landed him in the discussion for 6th man of the year.
On the even brighter side, Williams’ numbers were actually down from his previous production in Philadelphia, lending thought to the fact that he could be even better. He arrived after posting three straight years with an 18+ PER (including a 20.2 in 2011-2012), and his positional flexibility can be incredibly useful.
Obviously, the results of a torn ACL (especially for a quick, small guard) are the one hang-up in the equation. We have no idea how Williams will react during his first stint on the court in nearly a year, and it is often said (although it is a cliche) that the torn ACL is a two-year injury for full recovery and explosion. However, all indications are that he is on (or ahead of) schedule to return for the start of the year, and the pressure is off of Williams a bit with some of the roster construction.
Dennis Schröder will provide the pure, backup point guard that the Hawks needed even after matching Jeff Teague’s offer sheet, but with no surefire shooting guard on the roster, it will be Williams picking up that mantle. In fact, ESPN.com’s Bradford Doolittle provides high praise in projecting Williams as the #6 shooting guard in the entire NBA for the 2013-2014 season. Doolittle’s quick breakdown reflects a positive outlook, but also reminds us of his injury issue:
"“Williams is tough to classify in terms of position, but I think it’s safe to say his game is more of a 2-guard than a 1. When healthy, Sweet Lou is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, with a terrific complement of volume, foul-drawing, playmaking and a solid, but not spectacular, deep stroke. He’s also coming off a major knee injury, and you have to be concerned that the quickness and explosion Williams has relied upon will be diminished. For what it’s worth, I saw him walking around my hotel in Las Vegas and he looked fine. Unfortunately, it wasn’t on a basketball court.”"
While we could go in circles for days defining exactly who qualifies for Doolittle’s statistically-based list (Joe Johnson was nowhere to be found, for example), it would be jarring for some Hawks fans to see Williams arrive with that lofty of a ranking. Ideally, the 6-foot-1 Williams wouldn’t be forced into a “primary” shooting guard role, but even if he is, the basketball-reference projection for Williams (42/37/83 shooting percentages, 19 points per 36 minutes) would be a fantastic result for the amount of money he is owed.
I famously made the argument that Williams was the team’s 3rd-best player heading into last season, and honestly, I’m not sure it isn’t the case again in 2013-2014. Because of the injury concern, it would be the “safe” choice to bestow Jeff Teague with the number 3 spot (behind Horford and Paul Millsap), but at any rate, Lou Williams is an incredibly efficient, highly-effective player, and his absence from the court for the past 7 months likely hasn’t changed that.
Welcome back, Lou.