Atlanta Braves Series Preview: Cleveland Indians (8/27 – 8/29)

Aug 25, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) looks on as his team plays the St. Louis Cardinals during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. Atlanta defeated St. Louis 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The lengthy streak of series wins is over, but that doesn’t mean that the Braves are in the tank. Yes, there are injuries to Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla and Brandon Beachy, but the remaining squad is more than capable of winning games in August and September. With that said, let’s take a look at what to focus on when the Cleveland Indians (and former Braves outfielder Michael Bourn) arrive on Tuesday.

Tuesday, August 27th – 7:10 PM ET – Danny Salazar vs. Alex Wood

Tuesday’s opener is a very intriguing pitching match-up between two up-and-coming youngsters. Cleveland will trot out 23-year-old Danny Salazar for just his 5th Major League start, and he is an intriguing prospect. Salazar has chopped up the minors with double-digit strikeout rates in both AA and AAA this season, and in his 4 MLB starts, he has a 11.35 K/9 strikeout rate. In fact, his 3.52 ERA in the majors is a bit unlucky thanks to a bad home run rate, and he has the kind of high-end stuff that can perplex an offense. His average fastball velocity of 95.9 is telling of what kind of arm he is, and against a downsized Braves lineup, he could succeed. On the hill for Atlanta is Alex Wood, and he has been lights-out in recent days. Wood has made 4 consecutive starts in which he has allowed 1 run or fewer, and with that, he has lowered his ERA to a sparkling 2.50 on the season. There is a real argument that he is currently the best pitcher in the rotation, and while we don’t know how long that will last, he has been crucial in building/maintaining the massive division lead. As far as the lineup is concerned, I would expect to see Jordan Schafer in the lineup here (even though I can’t stand the platoon set-up with BJ) and Joey Terdoslavich could be a nice asset on Tuesday.

Wednesday, August 28th – 7:10 PM ET – Justin Masterson vs. Paul Maholm

There hasn’t been any “official” announcement yet, but Wednesday looks to be the day that Dan Uggla will be activated from the DL. If all goes well in Gwinnett on Tuesday night (as it did on Monday night), I’d expect him to be in the lineup, and even with a disappointing season thus far, he is a massive offensive grade on the other options at second base. Uggla, and the rest of the offense, will square off against Justin Masterson, and he’s been one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball this season. Masterson enters with a 3.50 ERA (3.31 xFIP) on the season, and he has non-coincidentally posted the highest strikeout rate of his career at 8.98 per 9 innings. He’s a groundball pitcher at heart (58.5% GB rate this year), but Masterson has a solid arsenal. Paul Maholm gets the start for Atlanta, and he wasn’t terribly impressive in his return from the DL. However, Maholm’s presence is suddenly important in the absence of Brandon Beachy, and I’d expect Maholm to be Maholm down the stretch, giving the Braves a reasonable option each and every time without the potential to overwhelm opposing offenses.

Thursday, August 29th – 7:10 PM ET – Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Kris Medlen

In the finale, Kris Medlen takes the hill for the first time since his post-start comments about being removed too early, and the Braves get a look at the enigma that is Ubaldo Jimenez. Medlen has been solid recently, allowing 3 runs or fewer in 4 straight starts, but he was famously removed after only 78 pitches in his last start. Of course, Medlen’s “run-in” with Fredi Gonzalez was hilariously minor, but in Braves culture, it moved the needle a bit. I’d expect Medlen to go out and pitch effectively, and frankly, he’s the guy I would expect Fredi to trot out in a Game 3 scenario if it happened this week. As far as Jimenez, it seems like a decade ago when he was electric in Colorado, but the 29-year-old has been reasonably effective this year. Through 25 starts, he has a sub-4.00 ERA (3.95) and the strikeout rate has rebounded to 8.91 per 9 innings after a dip to 7.28 K/9 in 2012. Even with that, however, the Braves lineup is fully capable of lighting him up a bit, and while he’ll certainly strike out some hitters, it wouldn’t be a shock to see 5-6 runs.

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With the division slimmed down a bit (13 games) as this series begins, there is some minor panic in the ranks of Braves fans. I am not a proponent of that, however, as the lead is still quite comfortable, and I find it more important to get healthy (-ish) than anything else. The Indians are a worthy opponent, but in the friendly confines of Turner Field, I’d expect the Braves to win this series.

Stay tuned for game-by-game analysis in this space as it happens!