2013 SEC Football Preview
By Drew Wilburn
Dec 1, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley (3) carries the ball as Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Adrian Hubbard (42) tries to make the tackle during the third quarter in the 2012 SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Football season kicks off in a few short hours, so let’s take a quick look at how teams in the SEC stand going into the season.
Alabama
Prediction: 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
Nick Saban has the Tide on a Roll (pun intended, sorry). But seriously, what is going to stop Alabama from winning another national title? AJ McCarron returns at quarterback as a darkhorse Heisman candidate, and he has a nice supporting cast around him including Armani Cooper and TJ Yeldon. They aren’t as experienced on the line as they were last year, but I expect them to be just fine (if not better) there. Nick Saban’s process tends to leave them constantly ready to reload. The only two games where I see the possibility of the Tide slipping up are Texas A&M and LSU. I really don’t see the A&M game as a result of the controversy surrounding Johnny Manziel, and I don’t see them losing at home against LSU. That being said, there’s a reason they play the games. In the meantime, it appears that the Tide will continue to Roll.
Arkansas
Prediction: 6-6 (2-6 SEC)
Arkansas had a disappointing season last year after the fiasco with Bobby Petrino. That being said, former Wisconsin head coach Brett Bielema is expected to come in and right the ship, but I wouldn’t expect the Razorbacks to return to a Top 25 team immediately. However, Arkansas doesn’t play any particularly strong teams in nonconference play, and they face some SEC teams of roughly the same caliber at home in games against Auburn and Ole Miss. All things considered, I expect the Razorbacks to get to six wins to become bowl eligible.
Auburn
Prediction: 6-6 (2-6 SEC)
Auburn is another team that had a disappointing season in 2012, but there is reason for optimism as former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn returns as head coach. Several players on offense had already been recruited for his system, and I expect that to pay dividends as he tries to turn the Tigers around. I expect the Tigers to go undefeated in nonconference play and to have two wins in conference play. This is largely based upon the reasoning that games against similar caliber SEC teams like Mississippi State and Ole Miss are at home, so I give Auburn a slight edge in these contests. This should result in a six win season and bowl eligibility for the Tigers.
Florida
Prediction: 9-3 (5-3 SEC)
Florida had an great season last year and the Gators begin as a Top 10 team in the polls, but I’m not as high on Florida as some other people are. Florida does not have good quarterback play, but the Gators managed to overcome that with great defense and some near-perfect play in other areas. Florida plays conference games at LSU and South Carolina, along with the annual Cocktail Party in Jacksonville against Georgia. Combine this with non-conference games against 11th ranked Florida State and at Miami, and I think Florida has a difficult season on their hands. My SEC bias has Florida winning against Florida State and Miami, but with these being rivalry games, all bets are off. I still believe the Gators have a good season, but I don’t see it being as fantastic as the national media predicts. We’ll see what happens.
Georgia
Prediction: 11-1 (7-1 SEC)
And here we are with the team our readers have been looking for. Brad Rowland is in the process of taking on the team in a two-part, in-depth preview, but I figured I would weigh in a bit here. The Georgia Bulldogs came agonizingly close to winning the SEC title and having a chance to be the team to absolutely crush Notre Dame for a National Title. Unfortunately, we’re not playing horseshoes here. That being said, there are several reasons for the Bulldogs to be optimistic heading into this season. Mark Richt is one of the best coaches in the country, and Aaron Murray is returning as a fourth-year starter at quarterback and potential Heisman contender. The Bulldogs also return a dangerous young running back tandem (led by another Heisman hopeful in Todd Gurley) and a solid offensive line. There are some concerns on defense, but the offense should be capable of carrying this team. Georgia starts the season off with a bang as their first two games are at Clemson and home against South Carolina, but after those two contests the Bulldogs have pretty smooth sailing the rest of the way out. The Dawgs are hungry after a near taste of a championship last year, and I would not be surprised if they knock off Alabama in an SEC Title rematch. As a self-professed Tennessee fan it pains me to say this, but… Go DAWGS.
Kentucky
Prediction: 3-9 (0-8 SEC)
I could say, “Well, it’s Kentucky; what do you expect?” and stop here. I will go into a bit more detail than that to say that things are looking up for them in the future with new head coach Mark Stoops, but don’t expect too much for a couple more years. The Wildcats are in the midst of a major rebuilding job, and we will have to see if they can continue the recruiting success they have had over these last few months as they go into the future. As far as 2013 is concerned, my prediction speaks for itself.
LSU
Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
LSU is a perennial Top-10 or Top-15 team at this point under Les Miles, and I honestly think that they are ranked a bit low at 12th place to start the season. LSU has a good system under the Mad Hatter, and John Chavis has done wonders for them as defensive coordinator. They won’t wow you on offense this year, but they won’t have to. I expect them to lose to Alabama and Georgia on the road, but the other highly ranked teams on their schedule are a bit overrated. Given all of this, I expect the Tigers to end the season with a good bowl game but falling short of reaching the SEC Title game.
Mississippi State
Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)
Mississippi State has a very difficult schedule this year that includes a non-conference game against Oklahoma State to start off the season. The Bulldogs had a good season last year, but they seemed to not play as well down the stretch. I don’t think they are as good as their record indicated last year, and I believe they are roughly on the same level as Ole Miss, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC West. Given that they are on the road in some of these tossup games, I believe that will give their roughly equal opponents enough of an advantage to give Mississippi State some more losses. While my predicted record for the Bulldogs indicates that I don’t expect them to make a bowl game, I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull one more out to get to six wins.
Missouri
Prediction: 5-7 (1-7 SEC)
Missouri just doesn’t know how to play “old man football” yet. To be honest, I don’t think the Tigers are an SEC-caliber team, and I wonder if I am being a bit generous with my prediction for them. Their talent level is not on par with the SEC, and James Franklin didn’t look capable of quarterbacking in the SEC last year. He did have some injury problems so maybe he comes back stronger, but my outlook for him isn’t that great. He was used to running around against Big 12 defenses, but he doesn’t appear capable of doing the same thing against the SEC’s speed and strength. Coach Finkel needs a good season to keep his job, but I don’t see it happening. I think they win their nonconference matchups and somehow pull out an SEC win, but that’s about it. The Tigers are in for a struggle.
Ole Miss
Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)
Ole Miss ended up with a winning record last year, but I think that had more to do with down years from Arkansas and Auburn than with Ole Miss really being a team that is pretty decent. Coach Hugh Freeze seems to have done a nice job, but I don’t think it will be enough this year. Ole Miss has a rough schedule that features a road non-conference game against Texas along with games against the typical contenders in the West. They also have quite a few tossup games on the road, and I expect this team to ultimately come just short of bowl eligibility. Much the same story as their in state foes above.
South Carolina
Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
The Ol’ Ball Coach has really turned South Carolina around, hasn’t he? He has Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson coming back at quarterback and… eh, nobody wants to hear about who they have on offense. They have JADAVEON CLOWNEY. Do I really need to say more? That being said, I expect South Carolina to lose at Georgia, and I expect them to slip up somewhere else with the schedule the Gamecocks have. They have a strong non-conference schedule, and I’m still not sold on the idea of playing two quarterbacks like they do. I think that will come back to bite them somewhere down the line, quite possibly on the road. That being said, the Gamecocks will have a good season, but not quite good enough to go to the SEC Title game.
Tennessee
Prediction: 7-5 (4-4 SEC)
Alright. Call me a homer. I dare you. Yes, Tennessee has been on a down swing, but there is reason for optimism in Knoxville. Butch Jones has done well to bring a new energy to the program that Derek Dooley never could muster, and this is a Tennessee team that played close games against several top SEC teams last season. Many of their offensive stars are gone, but they return with the most experienced offensive line in the conference. This combined with an experienced duo at running back in Raijon Neal and Marlin Lane could give this offense enough life to be a factor. The defense is going back to a 4-3, and I expect the Vols to be much improved on that side of the ball. I expect the Vols to win three of their non-conference games and SEC games against the likes of Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky. An upset somewhere wouldn’t totally shock me either, but the Vols are just as likely to drop one of these predicted wins. They end up with six or seven wins and a bowl appearance.
Texas A&M
Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
Welcome to Johnny Football’s team. You’re in for one wild ride. Johnny Manziel led Texas A&M to a stellar first season in the SEC while on his way to the Heisman Trophy, but he made several questionable decisions this offseason that may impact his team. That being said, Manziel is only suspended for one half against Rice and will have the opportunity to lead the Aggies again this year. (Note: Suspended for a half?! That is an insult to everybody. Either suspend him for multiple games and say he sold his autograph or don’t suspend him and say he didn’t do it. Don’t suspend him for one half while saying that he didn’t do anything. Unreal. But that is the NCAA for you.) Despite the fact that Manziel is available to play, I thought his issues might be a distraction to the team. Then I looked at Texas A&M’s schedule. They play against Alabama at home and against LSU on the road. Those are the only ranked teams the Aggies play. If they don’t reach 10 wins, then something went wrong somewhere. The Aggies finish with a strong record because of their schedule if for no other reason.
Vanderbilt
Prediction: 7-5 (3-5 SEC)
James Franklin has done a great job of changing the culture at Vanderbilt and creating an environment that is centered on making football more of a campus attraction to the nerds of Nashville. However, I wonder if he has changed the culture around the team to much in that direction. At the very least Franklin has struggled with keeping his team in check off the field, and that makes me wonder about what kind of discipline this team will show on the field and how this team will handle last year’s success. I believe Vandy will have a decent season but will not perform quite as well as last season because of the concerns raised above. Vanderbilt plays against four Top 10 teams, and I believe they lose all of those games. The only road game they have against a team of similar caliber is a game at Tennessee, and I believe that will be their fifth loss. This leaves the Commodores with seven games they should win, which will leave them with a decent record and a bowl berth.
With these results, the final standings should look something like this:
EAST
- Georgia
- South Carolina
- Florida
- Tennessee
- Vanderbilt
- Missouri
- Kentucky
WEST
- Alabama
- LSU
- Texas A&M
- Arkansas
- Auburn
- Mississippi State
- Ole Miss
We’ll see how these predictions hold up, but I’m looking forward to an exciting season. Let’s play football!