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Paul Millsap: Top 25 Player in the NBA?

By John Buhler

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Paul Millsap finds himself ranked as the 32nd best player in the NBA heading into the 2015-16 Season, according to SI‘s Top 100 Players of 2016.

This isn’t a bad spot for the 2x Eastern Conference All-Star, however, I don’t feel that there is all that much separation from Millsap and Al Horford (#21). Does Paul Millsap have a case to fall into the Top 25?

-= Related: Atlanta Hawks, 5 Players in SI’s Top 100 =-

For Paul Millsap to climb into the Top 25 of all NBA players entering 2015-16, he would have to jump six players.  Not impossible, but very challenging as most of the players above him are undoubtedly better than the Atlanta Hawks’ Power Forward.  I can’t say with confidence that Paul Millsap belongs in the Top 20, but the Top 25 isn’t out of the question. So who got too much love from SI in this latest poll?

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    • Immediately ahead of Paul Millsap in the 30’s are Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz and Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat.  Both Hayward and Wade are the leaders of their team, something Paul Millsap is not, but I see Wade getting too much love of late when he struggles to play an 82-game season.  The Hawks often lean on Millsap while Wade, though one of the all-time greats, often takes games off for the Miami Heat.

    Given that Hayward plays small forward, I see him as one of the Top 5 in the league at the three, so I can live with Gordon getting the nod over Millsap as the Jazz are looking to get back into the Playoffs in 2016.

    In the 20’s, there are only 3 players I feel Paul Millsap could overtake: Dirk Nowitzki (#28), Serge Ibaka (#25) and Damian Lillard (#24).  Dirk is a Top 50 player to ever play basketball, but is Paul Millsap in the midst of his prime actually better than Dirk in the twilight of his career?  I find Millsap to have a more well-rounded game than Dirk entering 2015-16.

    Ibaka is a force defensively, but still a liability to some degree on offense for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  He will need to take the next step for the Thunder to play for another NBA Championship in 2016, their last chance should Kevin Durant walk next summer.

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    I think Damian Lillard takes a step back in 2015-16, mostly because he is losing his entire starting lineup to free agency (Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, and the venerable LaMarcus Aldridge).  Lillard can play a strong offensive game, but is a glorified matador defensively.  He might still play well for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2015-16, but I have a very hard time seeing Rip City back in the Playoffs.

    Inside the Top 20, there are three guys I think are a little overhyped in 2016: Paul George (#20), Kevin Love (#17) and Carmelo Anthony (#15).  I love Paul George, but coming back from a major, major leg injury will present its challenges for the terrific swing man for Indy.  He won’t play in the same system that got Indiana to the ECF in back-to-back years in 2013-14.  David West and Roy Hibbert aren’t there anymore to control games defensively down low.  Paul George is going to play stretch four coming off one of the leg injuries in professional sports history. He’s talented, but 2015-16 will stand as an adjustment period for the Indiana Pacers and Paul George.

    Kevin Love decided to go back to Cleveland despite clearly not fitting into HC David Blatt’s offensive system.  That is because Love and LeBron James now play the same position, power forward.  With other talented bigs like Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov also on the Cavs, where is the floor space for Love to make plays down low and rebound?  He will have to live out on the perimeter to get his points.  The scheme fit in Cleveland hurts his value. He might need his own team to continue to have individual success in the NBA.

    Carmelo Anthony may never play in another playoff game in his career because his New York Knicks are perpetually stuck in disarray.  He’s not an efficient player and doesn’t seem to make his teammates better.  His flash as a player is a major reason Madison Square Garden always sells out.  I’m afraid Carmelo Anthony is entering the twilight of his prime playing for a lousy Knicks team.

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    So is Paul Millsap a Top 25 player in the NBA?  He’s very close, but I’m afraid that he misses barely misses the cut.  I see Paul Millsap as the 27th to 25th best player in the NBA.  He might be a better ball player than maybe four or five players ahead of on SI’s list, but not six or seven.

    The reason Top 25 is an important threshold is that it means a player is in contention to make an All-NBA team and is essentially a NBA All-Star Game lock.  Millsap should make his 3rd consecutive NBA All-Star Game in 2016 and perhaps he finally does earn All-NBA Honors.  For that to happen, the Atlanta Hawks need to win the Southeast again and get back to the Eastern Conference Finals.

    Next: Thabo Sefolosha: Better Defensively Than DeMarre Carroll?

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