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Shelby Miller: Excellent Season Despite Lack of Wins

By Jonathan Savitske

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Shelby Miller is now winless in his past 21 games after a Braves defeat at the hands of the New York Mets on Thursday night by a score of 7-2.

It has been discussed at length about the lack of run support that Shelby Miller has received over the course of this historically dismal stretch of games for the Atlanta Braves; but does his lack of wins during the 2015 season mean that it has been a bad campaign for the Braves pitcher?

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First of all, wins are not necessarily an indicator of success for a pitcher. Though having a high total of wins demonstrates run support and the ability to pitch deep into ball-games, another argument is that your team just had better luck against their opponent, giving you, the pitcher, more runs to work with over the course of a contest. A starter could give up 6 earned runs regularly and still win ballgames if they have the offense to counteract their opponents run scoring ability.

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For example, New York Mets starter Bartolo Colon is currently 6th in the NL with 14 wins on the season. Despite his success in winning games and pitching deep into contests (Colon has 176.2 innings pitched this season), Colon possesses a 4.13 ERA, which by most experts, is considered mediocre at best.

Another look at Bartolo Colon’s season shows that playing for the New York Mets in 2015 has its advantages, as the Mets have a +70 run differential, showing that Colon has a larger margin of error when pitching. With an offense that can consistently keep you in ballgames, the complexion of the game changes, as the does the perception of your season.

“Shelby Miller should be applauded for his yeoman’s work on a club that has had a disastrous season and is building for the future.”

Shelby Miller on the other hand has not been blessed with a good offense in 2015. In fact, the Atlanta Braves own a -175 run differential on the season, and during their 1-19 stretch, had a -101 run differential — the worst run differential during a span of 20 games since 1900. If the Atlanta Braves lose 100 games this year, the will become the first team to be .500 so late in the season to lose that amount of games, according to the AJC’s Mark Bradley.

Because of the Braves futility at the plate, Shelby Miller’s record has suffered, as he last won a game during a near no-hitter on May 17th against the the Miami Marlins. Here some other indicting facts about Shelby Miller’s season:

  • Shelby Miller was 2-8 at home.
  • Miller is 0-7 in his last 12 home starts.
  • In 8 of 12 of those home starts, Shelby Miller has received 0 runs of support.

Shelby Miller owns a 5-14 record this season, and these statistics would seem to indicate that 2015 has been a failure for him.

Sep 10, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller (17) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

So what does this mean when assessing Shelby Miller’s season? Does his historic lack of run support and lack of wins mean that 2015 was a failure? Quite the contrary, actually, if you share my belief that wins are an an outdated statistic and don’t demonstrate effectiveness for a pitcher.

Does Shelby Miller’s 4 wins make him any less effective than a 14 win Bartolo Colon who plays for a team with a plus 70 run differential, which keeps him in games longer to procure a win? Does Colon’s 14 wins negate the fact that he has a plus 4.0 ERA?

Currently, Shelby Miller is 6th in the National League in ERA with a 2.86 mark, in spite of being winless for 21 consecutive starts. Miller has pitched 182.1 innings in 2015, putting him on track to eclipse his previous mark of 183 innings pitched in 2014 with the Cardinals, where he owned a 3.74 ERA — nearly 1 point higher than his ERA this year. His 182.1 innings pitched is good for 8th in the National League, where pitchers like Michael Wacha and Gerrit Cole are having similar years to Miller, except that they are winning games on playoff bound teams.

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Shelby Miller’s season has not been a failure, or even dissapointing. How many pitchers can you name that are in top 10 in the league in ERA and innings pitched and play for a potentially 100 loss team? Shelby Miller should be applauded for his yeoman’s work on a club that has had a disastrous season and is building for the future. His excellent numbers not only show that he is able to maintain excellence on the mound despite the ineptitude of his offense, but that the future is bright for both him and the Atlanta Braves.

Though the lack of wins may be taking its toll on Miller’s psyche this late into the season, Shelby Miller deserves praise and not pity. He has given the Braves a chance to win in almost every game he has pitched this season — which indicates success in my mind. Isn’t that what you want in a starting pitcher?

Next: Tim Hudson: Former Brave Set to Retire at Season's End

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