Mike Foltynewicz: Atlanta Braves’ Closer for 2016?

Mike Foltynewicz received high praise while a member of the Houston Astros; thus, that prompted the Atlanta Braves to trade for him last offseason. However, does his future lie in the bullpen?

The Atlanta Braves traded Evan Gattis to the Houston Astros for a trio of well-regarded prospects: Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. Mike Foltynewicz made his MLB debut in 2014 as a member of the Astros, strictly coming out of the bullpen. In 2014, Foltynewicz finished the season with 16 appearances, posting a 5.30 ERA. While those numbers are not sharp, it was his first stint in the MLB, and he still needs to work on his craft.

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Outside of Mike Foltynewicz’s relief role for the Houston Astros in 2014, he pitched primarily as a starter in his young career. The Houston Astros selected Foltynewicz in the first round (19th overall) of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft out of Minooka High School in Illinois. Foltynewicz started his professional career with the Greenville Astros and made 12 appearances. He finished his first professional season with a 4.03 ERA and 4.09 FIP.

The following season, the Houston Astros promoted Mike Foltynewicz to Single-A, and he spent the entire 2011 and 2012 seasons at this stop. As expected, his first season at Single-A proved to be less successful from his second stint. Foltynewicz improved on nearly every major statistic in his second season at Single-A, finishing the 2012 season with 152 innings pitched, 14 wins, and a 3.14 ERA. Also, he improved his strikeout rate and home run rate from 2011 to 2012. “Folty” looked to be heading in the right direction entering the 2013 season.

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Mike Foltynewicz split his 2013 season between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi. With Lancaster, Foltynewicz started five games and made two relief appearances. This marked the first time that Folty made an appearance out of the bullpen in his professional career. While with Lancaster, Foltynewicz posted a career-high strikeout rate of 10.04, likely the reason for his mid-season promotion to Double-A. Foltynewicz shined with Corpus Christi, posting career-bests in ERA and FIP (2.87 and 3.88, respectively).

Due to Foltynewicz’s strong end to the 2013 season, the Houston Astros started him at Triple-A Oklahoma City; however, he experienced a good bit of struggles to open the season. He registered a 5.08 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and a 4.56 walk rate. Despite Mike Foltynewicz’s struggles at Triple-A, the Astros wanted him to make his MLB debut in the 2014 season (at the age 0f 22). The Astros used him strictly out of the bullpen to ease him into action against MLB opposition. He finished with 16 MLB appearances and a 5.30 ERA.

The Astros decided to trade him in the 2015 offseason to bolster their offense. The Braves landed Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman for Evan Gattis. After the Atlanta Braves acquired the hard-throwing righty, Foltynewicz opened the 2015 season as a member of the Gwinnett Braves. After the first month of the season, the Braves promoted Foltynewicz to assume a rotation spot. Foltynewicz struggled in his first nine starts to the season, posting a 5.19 ERA and 4.38 FIP.

The Braves decided to demote Foltynewicz to Triple-A after his rough start to his Braves’ career and to work on his command. After spending three weeks with Gwinnett, the Braves recalled Mike Foltynewicz to the Major League roster, and he made three relief appearances upon his return. Once again, the Braves demoted the pitcher to Triple-A; however, it was not for long, as he was recalled to replace the injury Manny Banuelos later in July. 

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In Mike Foltynewicz’s final six starts to the season, he continued to struggle, posting a 6.47 ERA and 6.45 FIP. In addition to Folty’s on-field struggles, he struggled to stay healthy at the tail-end of the 2015 season, succumbing to pneumonia in September that landed him on the 15-day DL. Mike Foltynewicz neared a return to Atlanta, but a more serious ailment essentially ended his season. Foltynewicz was admitted to a local-area hospital and diagnosed with blood clots in his right arm. He underwent surgery to remove part of a rib to help repair a blockage to his pitching arm.

Mike Foltynewicz finished the 2015 season, for the Atlanta Braves, with a 5.71 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 8.00 strikeout rate, and a 3.01 walk rate. Foltynewicz possesses one of the best fastballs in the game, rated as a 70 (out 0f 80) by Fangraphs. Also, Folty offers two average off-speed pitches to his arsenal, a curveball and change-up. If he develops his secondary pitches, he looks like a lethal back-end bullpen arm in the making.

John Hart stated that the Braves want to pursue relief arms this offseason, but Mike Foltynewicz presents an alternative route for the Braves. Arodys Vizcaino finished the 2015 season as the Braves closer, but 2015 was his most successful season to-date. Throughout the 2015 season, Foltynewicz struggled after hitters went through the lineup once; thus, that makes him a viable option for the pen. Another aspect of Folty’s game that needs to improve is his ability to pitch instead of throw. 

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Too many times in 2015 did Mike Foltynewicz get hit hard, because he became too predictable as a pitcher. He needs to learn how to command his secondary pitches to get ahead of hitters on a more regular basis. Anyone in the MLB can hit a 97 MPH fastball down the middle, and too many times did Folty need to resort to his fastball, because he fell behind in the count. By gaining more experience in the MLB, Foltynewicz likely improves his command heading into 2016.

However, the Atlanta Braves have a log-jam at starting pitching entering next season, likely relegating a couple arms to the bullpen. With Mike Foltynewicz’s plus-plus fastball, he looks like a leading candidate to get the bump to the bullpen. He presents a solid alternative option to Vizcaino, and he may even overtake Vizcaino. Jason Grilli is expected to be back for the Braves in 2016, but it remains to be seen if he reclaims the closer role. A one-two-three punch of Grilli, Foltynewicz, and Vizcaino could transition the Braves from having a terrible bullpen to a solid bullpen without having to go out and acquire talent.

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The Braves likely want to add a strong left-handed relief pitcher to the mix, but the answer to their bullpen woes may lie, in large-part, within the organization. Do not forget that Tyrell Jenkins is pushing for a spot on the Braves roster next season. With eight or more viable candidates for a rotation spot in 2016, look for the outliers to be inserted into the bullpen. Look for Spring Training to paint a clearer picture heading into 2016, showing who the Braves favor as starter or relievers.