Atlanta Braves Series Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (8/12 – 8/14)

Aug 11, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Jason Heyward (22) celebrates scoring in the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Greetings! The incredible winning streak for the Braves may be over, but they still took 2 out of 3 from the Marlins over the weekend. With that, the team has won 17 of their last 20 games, and they’ll look to continue that stellar performance as the Philadelphia Phillies come to town for a 3-game set. Let’s take a look at what to expect.

Monday, August 12th – 7:10 PM ET – Cole Hamels vs. Julio Teheran

Despite the fact that the Braves have their “#2 starter” going in Monday’s series opener, this is the most difficult match-up of the three. Simply put, Cole Hamels is by far the best starter that the Braves will see in the three games, and despite a “down” year, he’s still a quality pitcher. Hamels enters with a mediocre 3.81 ERA for the season, but that number dips to 2.67 since the All-Star break, and he has shown signs of a turnaround. In addition, the Braves could be without Justin Upton on Monday after he exited Sunday’s game early with a hamstring cramp, and Brian McCann is a question mark as well. With that said, Hamels is still hittable, and with Teheran on the bump for Atlanta against an average (at best) Philly lineup, the situation isn’t a scary one. Julio has allowed 1 run or fewer in 4 straight starts (and 5 of 6), and in the process, he has lowered his ERA to a stellar 2.96 for the year. The peripherals suggest that he’s been a bit lucky to achieve that sub-3.00 mark (3.73 xFIP, 82.9% strand rate), but as long as Teheran can keep his strikeout-to-walk greatness going, he’ll succeed in a major way. This is the biggest toss-up of the week, but I still wouldn’t say that Philadelphia is favored to win at Turner Field.

Tuesday, August 13th – 7:10 PM ET – Ethan Martin vs. Kris Medlen

The big question of Tuesday’s game has to be, “who is Ethan Martin?!”, and we’ll try to answer that here. Martin is scheduled to make just the 3rd start of his Major League career on Tuesday, and the results of his first two were ugly. He has thrown only 9.2 innings combined in the two outings, and his ERA of 6.75 (with a 7.01 FIP) doesn’t scream effectiveness. He is a former Dodgers farmhand who hasn’t ever produced a full season with a sub-3.50 ERA in the Minors, and frankly, the 24-year-old right-hander appears to be a bit out of his depth. Throw in the likelihood that we’ll see a healthier Braves lineup on Tuesday night, and things could get ugly for Philly. Kris Medlen has been solid (-ish) this season, but he has also been completely unspectacular for the most part, and that extends to his recent past. In his last 5 starts, Medlen has allowed 4, 4, 2, 4, and 3 runs respectively, and with that, his ERA has climbed to its highest of the season at 3.85. Fortunately, he hasn’t had any severe blow-ups in the recent past (and he has actually garnered the pitcher win in each of his 3 starts), but it would be nice to see a quality outing here against the Phillies. Regardless, Ethan Martin’s involvement in this game gives the Braves a defined edge.

Wednesday, August 14th – 7:10 PM ET – John Lannan vs. Brandon Beachy

In the finale, the big storyline is whether Brandon Beachy can follow-up his dominant performance from Friday night. Beachy threw 8 shutout innings and allowed only 3 hits in defeating the Marlins, and he showed the high-end potential that we’ve all dreamed about since his impressive debut in the Majors. Of course, the overall stat line has to be taken with a grain of salt thanks to the dreadful opponent, but Beachy was hitting his spots all night, and that is encouraging. Philly presents a more real challenge, but the biggest thing to watch will be location from the outset. He’ll square off with John Lannan, and he is a noted Braves killer. He is 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA in 17 career starts against the Braves, and that total is good for the best ERA against any team in which he’s thrown more than 50 innings. There is nothing particularly special about Lannan, but he is the typical “soft-tossing lefty” that historically gives the Braves issues. This season, the lack of strikeouts (4.56 K/9) has given him fits, and led to a woeful 4.81 ERA over 73 innings. It’ll be important to see Jason Heyward and company (read: the lefties) take positive, patient approaches against Lannan in this one.

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The Braves enter the Philadelphia series with an incredible home record of 40-16 (.714), and that number is good for the best in the Major Leagues. 2 of the 3 pitching match-ups are decisively in the favor of the Braves, and when you pair the line-ups and bullpens together, Atlanta should have the edge in both categories. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Philadelphia win a game in this series, but with the way Atlanta is playing, it’s tough to be anything short of confident in a series victory.

Stay tuned for game-by-game analysis in this space as it happens!