Atlanta Braves Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (8/22 – 8/25)

Aug 21, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson (23) is congratulated at home by shortstop Andrelton Simmons (19) after hitting a three-run home run against the New York Mets during the tenth inning of a game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves continue their road trip with a four-game series in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are one of the few elite teams that the Braves face in the back half of their schedule, and this will serve as a useful barometer of the current team’s postseason readiness. As things stand now, the Cardinals would be the Braves’ most likely NLDS matchup as they would be in the wild card game, and the Braves would play the winner of that “play-in” game.

The Braves come into the series with an injury depleted lineup that will hopefully not be too similar to their postseason roster. Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla will both miss the series with long-term ailments, and Justin Upton’s status is uncertain as he has missed the previous three games with back issues. All three of those players would likely play in any postseason series, though Heyward’s injury may impact his effectiveness in the NLDS even if he has recovered from his broken jaw by then.

The Braves traveling to St. Louis missing so many key players is not ideal as the Cardinals are a very good team. The Cardinals are 73-53 and just one game back of the Pirates in the NL Central race. The Cardinals lead the National League in run differential and have the best offense in the NL. St. Louis has posted a 107 wRC+ that leads the NL, just ahead of the Braves, and the Cardinals have multiple MVP and Cy Young candidates. Yadier Molina was considered by many to be the NL MVP favorite until his recent stint on the disabled list. He comes into the series healthy again and ready to be the force he had been all year. Molina is the best defensive catcher in baseball who also hits for power and gets on base at a very high rate. Matt Carpenter has been just as good, and Carpenter’s 5.1 fWAR should make him an MVP candidate, though his campaign has had trouble getting as much traction as Molina’s was getting pre-injury.

Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, and Matt Holliday are all having stellar seasons at the plate and together have put the Cardinals on pace to set an NL record for batting average with runners in scoring position. This has been a major factor in why the Cardinals offense has been so potent, and Braves’ pitchers will have to do what other teams have struggled with in limiting the damage when the Cardinals threaten.

The Cardinals have strong pitching as well with Adam Wainwright putting together a dominant season that would be getting more attention if Clayton Kershaw wasn’t running away with the NL Cy Young award. Shelby Miller has been the Cardinals version of Julio Teheran and is a strong rookie of the year candidate. The St. Louis rotation does get a bit shaky after those two hurlers, and the Braves should have some favorable pitching match-ups in the series if the Braves depleted offense can take advantage of them. Without a doubt, the Cardinals’ biggest weakness as a team is their defense. The defense has committed very few errors but ranks in the bottom of the league in terms of UZR and defensive runs saved. Basically, the Cardinals don’t commit errors because their fielders are too slow to get close enough to balls to boot them. If the Braves are to win this series, making the Cardinals have to field the ball will be a big part of it.

Here is a quick look at the pitching match-ups:

Thursday, August 22nd – 8:15 PM ET (MLB Network) – Paul Maholm (returning from the DL) vs. Joe Kelly

Friday, August 23rd – 8:15 PM ET – Kris Medlen vs. Adam Wainwright

Saturday, August 24th – 7:15 PM ET – Julio Teheran vs. Shelby Miller

Sunday, August 25th – 2:15 PM ET (TBS) – Brandon Beachy vs. Lance Lynn

Even though the Braves swept the Cardinals when the teams met in Atlanta in July, the Braves come into this series at a major disadvantage. The Braves are severely depleted by injuries and have not played as well on the road as they have at home. Jason Heyward’s dominance in the leadoff spot had been a major reason for the Braves going 19-4 since Fredi Gonzalez optimized the batting order. Without Heyward, Uggla, and with Justin Upton’s status uncertain, a series victory should not necessarily be expected. As always though, this is baseball and predicting baseball in small samples is a fool’s errand. These games could be crucial if the Braves want to maintain their hold on the best record in the NL for playoff seeding.

Stay tuned for game-by-game analysis as it unfolds.