Atlanta Braves Series Preview: New York Mets (9/2 – 9/4)

Aug 30, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla (26) is forced out at home plate by Miami Marlins catcher Jeff Mathis (6) during the seventh inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Marlins 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Greetings! The Braves finished off their (winning) series with the Miami Marlins on a low note on Sunday. However, the lowly Mets are in town for a three-game set this week, and that is reason for optimism. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap.

Monday, September 2nd – 1:10 PM ET – Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Paul Maholm

Two things are “special” about this match-up. First of all, this is (obviously) a Labor Day battle, giving us a rare 1:10 start on a Monday afternoon, and that is frankly awesome. Secondly, Dice-K and Paul Maholm face-off for one of the least interesting pitching battles in recent history. This is the third appearance for Matsuzaka in a New York uniform, and he’s been woeful in the first two. He has an 8.68 ERA in 2013, and had a 8.28 ERA in 2012, and to be honest, I’m not sure he’s much better than that. On the “bright” side, he works incredibly slowly, and could cause the game to stretch to the high 3-hour time frame. He’ll be opposed by Paul Maholm, who was actually quite effective in his last start. He navigated six innings of 1-run ball against the Indians, and showed signs that he could be the solid option that he was prior to injury. Even with him as the “worst” starter on the Braves at this stage, he has a distinct advantage over Dice-K, and thus, the Braves are in good shape here.

Tuesday, September 3rd – 7:10 PM ET – Carlos Torres vs. Kris Medlen

Tuesday’s game brings the second start of Carlos Torres against the Braves this season. On July 23rd, he pitched 6 innings of 1-run ball against Atlanta, and although he has only 4 starts this season, he has a combined 2.77 ERA between the rotation and the bullpen. Most effectively, Torres has a wildly low walk rate of 1.14 per 9 innings this season, and that seems unsustainable based on his track record. It would be nice to see the Braves lineup exercise some patience in this game, and it could be an opportunity for the right-handed batters to tee off on a pitcher from their own side, as Torres has allowed a high career OPS from the right-handed batter’s box than the left-handed side. Kris Medlen takes the ball for Atlanta, and he’s allowed 3 runs or less in 5 straight starts. In fact, he was borderline spectacular in delivering 7 shutout innings against Cleveland last week, and there are signs that he’s coming on. I’m firmly behind him as the #3 starter in the playoffs, and Fredi Gonzalez will likely agree if he keeps up this nice pace.

Wednesday, September 4th – 12:10 PM ET – Dillon Gee vs. Julio Teheran

The always-outstanding “business man’s special”! This doubles as the best pitching match-up of the series, simply because Dillon Gee is overly competent, and that is leaps and bounds better than the rest of what the Mets are trotting out. Gee has a 3.63 ERA on the season, which isn’t spectacular in the NL, but he has a sparkling 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break. The right-hander isn’t dazzling as far as his stuff is concerned (6.44 K/9), but his control is good, and “getaway” day games normally breed impatience at the plate. Teheran was fantastic in his last start, allowing 1 earned run against Miami, and he continues to look strong despite escalating innings. Playing two day games against a tired Mets team that could be mailing it in (see the closing paragraph for details) is a nice way to wash off the stink of Sunday’s blowout loss to Miami.

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With the magic number to clinch the NL East title lowering by the day, the Braves are on cruise control at this stage. However, the team seems very interested in gaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and in order to that (and pursue 100 wins), they need to keep the pedal down on the floor. This is a tired Mets team (they arrived in Atlanta at 4 am on Monday), and they are very susceptible to another Braves lashing.

Stay tuned for game-by-game analysis in this space as it happens!