Braves make worthwhile gamble by signing Ervin Santana

Kansas City Royals pitcher Ervin Santana (54) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

“There has never been a bad 1-year deal.”

The above sentiment has been passed down over the years as gospel, and in the case of the Atlanta Braves and newly-signed right-hander Ervin Santana, it is certainly a topical thought. If you missed the announcement from Wednesday morning, the team and Santana agreed on a lucrative, 1-year deal for $14.1 million, leading people to speculate on the well-being of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy while simultaneously lining up on different sides of the “Is Ervin Santana even good?” argument. For me, though, it almost doesn’t matter.

Because it is a one-year deal.

If we are to assume (and no announcement has been made to this point on either player) that the Braves will be without the services of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy for some period of time, the Atlanta Braves were set to trot out an opening day rotation of the following:

• Julio Teheran
• Alex Wood
• Freddy Garcia
• David Hale
• Mike Minor (if he can pitch after his urethra/shoulder issue)

Read the five names above again, and remember (for one second) that the Braves have designs on a World Series after the 2014 season. Yes, $14.1 million for a pitcher with a relatively inconsistent track record seems to be on the high side, but the organization clearly had the ability to be flexible by adding the money (Wren reportedly called it an “incredible decision” by the leadership), and GM Frank Wren clearly recognizes that this is a roster built to win now, and that a “punt” year without adequate starting pitching depth would be misguided.

With regard to expectations for the 31-year-old Santana, they are wide-ranging. He posted an impressive 3.24 ERA over 211 innings in the American League last season, but the peripherals (3.93 FIP, 76.9 LOB%) indicate that he was a bit lucky to earn that ratio, and prior to that, he was lambasted to the tune of a 5.16 ERA in 2012 with the Angels. Still, he has flashed impressive upside during his career (including a 6.0 fWAR season with the Angels in 2008), and while he isn’t the same strikeout pitcher that he was in his younger days, an increasing ground-ball rate fits well into what the Braves can put behind him (i.e. Andrelton Simmons).

Even if Santana is simply a pitcher with a “true” ERA in the high-3.00’s, he is a marked upgrade on the available talent that includes Hale and Garcia, and that makes this move a sound one for Atlanta. It is hard to read reports of the move without finding a dissenting opinion, but other than the fact that the Braves were forced to surrender a first-round pick in compensation (which will be replaced by the pick acquired in losing Brian McCann), there is virtually no argument against Santana on a 1-year pact.

Braves fans will now hope for the 2013 version of Ervin Santana over the 2012 version of the same pitcher, and as long as the wheels don’t come careening off the wagon, the 25-man roster is in much better shape on Wednesday morning than it was on Tuesday evening.