Atlanta Braves Magic Numbers Week six
Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla (26) and shortstop Andrelton Simmons (19) work to turn a ground ball into a force out at second base against the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Cubs 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The Atlanta Braves swept the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, making them winners of four of their last five games. That came on the heels of last week’s seven-game losing streak. If you read Week five’s magic numbers, most of the article focused on not panicking in May since the Braves are likely to turn things around. Well, I’m happy to report that they did just that.
The Braves hit 8-for-16 with runners in scoring position against the Cubs, increasing their total RISP average to .220 on the season. That’s inching closer to the total team average of .235 on the season, so the concerns about low RISP should hopefully dwindle as the Braves play throughout May.
While the offense is getting back on track, it still only performed slightly better than a beer-league softball team for the week. Before the Sunday “outburst” of five runs, the Braves scored 13 runs in their last six games. Unfortunately, that was dead last in runs across the league. With that slump in mind, I think it’s about time we looked at the lineup as a whole. I believe it’s no accident that the Braves scored 10 runs in their series against the Cubs while Dan Uggla rode the bench. I also believe they swept that series because the Cubs manager is making moves based on a Magic 8-ball. So while we can’t just look at one winning streak and draw conclusions, I still don’t think Dan Uggla is part of the Braves long-term plans.
Were I to put together the optimal lineup based on what we know right now, here’s how it would look:
Heyward, Simmons, Freeman, Justin Upton, Gattis, BJ Upton, Johnson, Pena, and the pitcher.
Heyward struggled early on in the lead-off spot, but he’s turned things around well in the month of May. Heyward has an OBP over .300 even though he’s struggled to get hits. However, Jason’s historical hitting numbers start to spike as the calendar flips to June. He’s also managed to steal six bases, which is second on the team. His speed would be complimented by the second hitter in Simmons, who doesn’t strike out often and is slugging .425.
Both men are quick on the base paths should they reach ahead of the 3-4-5 hitters. Freeman is the obvious choice for the 3-hole given his high OPS and clutch contact. Justin Upton would stay in the cleanup spot, since he has the highest slugging percentage on the team at .576. Gattis would the 5th spot nicely with his power as well.
The 6-7-8 hitters are a little more fluid, but I like the idea of BJ Upton in the the sixth slot. The sixth slot has been one of the worst hitting slots on the team, mostly because that’s where Fredi had Dan Uggla. While BJ won’t be a huge improvement, it’s certainly better than the Dan, and it’s a nice place to hide a struggling hitter. Right now, Braves hitters have a .178 average in the six-hole. I think BJ will improve that average over time. Chris Johnson is hitting .382 in the month of May, and he’s also hitting .458 in the 7th slot, so he is the right guy for that job in my mind. The 8th position is one of the tougher hitting positions in the lineup, but Pena has done well there with an .886 OPS in limited ABs.
As you can see there is no Dan Uggla in this scenario. Uggla is hitting .184 and it’s almost May 15th. At some point, everyone is just going to accept that he’s never going to turn it around. I don’t really care if he’s got $26 million left on the contract, he’s not worth putting on the field anymore. I would actually prefer to let $26M in small bills hit in place of Dan, if only because the money would probably take more walks. Nobody in their right mind would accept a trade for him at even 10% of his remaining value.
The Braves are going to release him, and it’s just a matter of time. I hope they realize this sooner rather than later, because Tommy La Stella is sitting in AAA hitting nearly .300 with an OBP near .380. Even if the Braves platoon Pena and La Stella, the options there are still better than Dan Uggla who is hitting .180 in his last 550 ABs.
Some will question why I would still have BJ Upton in the lineup. The truth is that I just don’t have any better ideas for that position with the current roster. Schafer is hitting .143 while BJ is hitting .202 for the season. I don’t believe the Braves have many answers in center field currently. Also, while I don’t believe Dan can turn it around, I’ve seen signs that BJ is seeing the ball better. Hopefully, the glasses continue to pay dividends with BJ’s hitting, in addition to providing the fans nerdy chuckles. Plus, there’s still 60 million reasons why you have to keep rolling BJ out there in center.
The Braves go to San Francisco and St. Louis next week on their road trip. I must admit that I’m concerned about the Braves offense going right back into the same pitching meat grinder that produced the 7 game slide. Sadly, I don’t make the schedule. If the Braves can weather that storm, they come home to face a tough Milwaukee squad followed by Colorado and Boston.
Let’s face it, May is probably the cruelest stretch of baseball the Braves will face all season. That being said, the pitching has been good enough to beat anybody. If the hitting could put three runs on the board every game, the Braves would have added at least five more wins to this season. There’s no reason why they couldn’t do the same against any of these clubs.
Just remember one thing. No matter what happens for the rest of the month, only fools panic in May.