Atlanta Braves Magic Numbers: Week eight

Welcome to the time of year when the standings start to matter for the Atlanta Braves. That’s right, once we get past Memorial Day, you can start to make certain assumption about who has a good chance in the divisions.

There is one thing that I can usually rely on when you look at the standings. If there is a team that sits 10 games back on Memorial Day, they are in deep trouble. This includes teams like the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Astros. I’d bet good money that you’re not going to see any of those teams in the post-season this year. Heck, I’d even bet morally questionable money on it.

For the rest of the teams in the league, however, things are less certain. One thing I can tell you is that any team leading their division at the end of May has a better than 50% shot of making the playoffs in the new Wild Card era. Last year, 4 of the 6 division leaders at the end of May made the playoffs. In 2012, 4 of the 7 made the playoffs as well if you included teams that were tied. It’s important to remember how much things changed in 2012 when added the extra wild card slot. That makes it easier for a team who has a lead after the first two months to maintain some post-season momentum, even if they lose the top spot.

Looking ahead a bit, the Braves schedule in June sets up nicely for a team in first place. Here’s the breakdown going into Monday:

• Seattle at home – The Mariners are a sub-.500 team with a 14-13 road record. Not a pushover, but not a dominating challenge either with no DH. Also, that travel has to be awful, and they will be jet-lagged.
• Diamondbacks in Arizona – The Diamondbacks are dead last in their division, 13 games back, and 6-18 at home. People show up to Arizona games for the bobbleheads, then immediately head to the parking lot.
• Rockies in Colorado – By far the hardest series as it’s 4 games in Coors Field. The Rockies are 16-7 at home with just absurd offensive split at home. Splitting that series would be gold. I’d live with 1-3.
• LA Angels at home – This will be the hardest home series. The Angels are 13-8 on the road, and they have a +47 run differential. The Colorado/LAA week might have Braves fans hit the panic button again.
• Philly at home – The Phillies are .500 on the road, but their pitching is terrible. Plus the team is drawing social security. They’ve also had their road numbers inflated by series with the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Cubs.
• Nats in Washington – So far, the Nats have been average everywhere. That is until they play the Braves. Against Atlanta they are 1-5 so far this season, and they’ve looked lost in most of those games.
• Astros in Houston – The Astros are 11.5 out of their division, have a -56 run differential, and probably won’t care about anything but hitting the bars by the time we play them.
• Phillies in Philly – You know the difference between Philly at home and Philly on the road? The Phillies get booed more at home.

If the Braves can get past the middle of the month where they face the Rockies and Angels, I think they have a very favorable setup for June. That’s assuming the team stays healthy and continues to pitch well during the summer months. Obviously anything can change, and teams can get hot in periods, but I’d rather be looking at a bunch of teams with mostly .500 or worse records than the other way around.

As for the Braves in Week 8, they won both their series against Milwaukee and Colorado. The offense really came alive in both those series, as the Braves were top 5 in the MLB in runs scored for the week. That’s a pretty substantial turnaround from barely scoring in the double digits in the week prior. Most of that production can be attributed to Justin Upton, who had 3 homers and 10 RBIs for the week. Justin slumped heavily in May last year, but in 2014, he’s turned the calendar from April to May with force. I would also be remiss if I didn’t not that Evan Gattis really rocked the week in just 3 games. His 2 homers in the 7-0 win against Colorado were instrumental in winning that series.

Next week, the Braves play a home and away series with Boston before heading to Miami. Honestly, that’s likely to be a pretty tough road stretch considering Miami’s record at home. The good news is that Braves bats are starting to heat up again. The bad news is that as I finish this article the Braves blew a 6-1 lead to the Red Sox. However, we can take some solace in the fact that the Braves are 7-9 in day games, but they are 21-13 at night. Luckily, the rest of the games against Boston are after dark. Hopefully, the pitching can get back on track for the rest of the week.