Atlanta Braves Magic Numbers: Week Nine

This week was particularly awful early for the Atlanta Braves, considering they got swept by Boston in 4 games. What made it worse was the defense collapsing in two of those loses, and blowing the leads. Then, the Braves turned things around in Miami, taking the first two games and the series. If there’s one thing you can say about Atlanta this season, it’s that the team has been completely inconsistent.

While that may send fans running for a bottle of liquor just to get through some of the Boston games, the Braves are fortunate enough to still be in first place. However, they don’t do anything particularly well right now, other than starting pitching. The fact they still have the lead in the division speaks more to the (lack of) strength of the NL East, rather than any sort of great play from Atlanta.

So how does the NL East stack up against other divisions in the National League? In terms of total wins going into Sunday, the NL East is in the middle, ahead of the NL Central and behind the NL West. In terms of run differential, the NL East is basically even with the NL West at +8 and +10, while the NL Central is way behind at -19. So given some AL games, the NL East and West are basically knocking around the NL Central right now.

Where comparisons start to fall apart is when you look at the top two teams competing for the division titles. The NL East has the Braves at 30 wins, and the Marlins at 28 wins for a total of 58. The NL Central has Brewers with 33 and the Cardinals at 30 for a total of 63, while the NL West has the Giants at 36 and the Dodgers at 30 for a total of 66. By that standard, the NL East is the just the best looking pig at the fair. It also means that if the Braves were playing in either of the other divisions, they would be in second place rather than in the lead.

So what do the Atlanta Braves have to do to improve their overall record and put some distance between themselves and an average-to-below-average division? To begin with, they have the worst run differential of any division leader at +9. Most of that is the fact that the Braves still aren’t scoring runs like they should be. Atlanta is 28th in runs scored across all of baseball, and the next closest division leader to them is Milwaukee at 12th. Yes, the gap is bigger than Gerald Laird’s breakfast buffet. Frankly, I have no idea how the pitching has carried this team this far with that little support. However, realistically given where the Braves fall in runs scored, they should be 4-5 games under .500 like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

The second thing the Braves will have to do is improve their slugging totals. This team is supposed to be built on home run hitters and big innings. Yet, the Braves are only 18th in slugging in the MLB. They are only 13th in homers. Unfortunately, the Braves are 4th most in strikeouts. Now, I’m not one of those guys that will hammer you with the fact strikeouts matter or don’t matter. It’s a really stupid debate argued by people looking at one game versus people looking at 5,000 at-bats. The answer is that they matter more if you’re not knocking the ball around otherwise. Example, the Giants are 5th in most K’s behind the Braves, but they are 8th in runs. Why? Because the Giants are 9th in slugging and 4th in overall homers. They can afford to whiff since their big hitters are performing well.

The last thing the Braves need to do is improve the defense.At this moment, Atlanta is 16th in fielding percentage, which is painfully average, even if fielding percentage isn’t the only measure defensively. This team can’t afford to be average in the field when they don’t score many runs. Average means that other teams are getting extra outs, and the Boston series showed how extra outs lead to big rallies. Part of that is solved by getting rid of ‘King of all Errors’, Dan Uggla. The other part is that Justin Upton and Evan Gattis have been extremely questionable in the field, with 5 errors apiece. They both really need to cut down on those errors, because their bats are too hot to take out of the lineup.

Overall, I’m happy how the Braves recovered this week. They easily could have let the Boston series drive them into a shame spiral where Fredi Gonzalez just sat in the clubhouse crying in a bathrobe and eating a tub of Blue Bell Cookie Dough ice cream. Instead, they sucked it up in Miami and rebounded at the plate. As I went over in Magic Numbers week eight, the schedule loosens up for the Braves in June. If they can carry some momentum into the summer, they could easily find themselves with a double digit lead on the lackluster NL East.