Atlanta Braves Magic Numbers: Week Thirteen
Thinking back to last season, many Braves fans wondered about the team’s offense. I think we all expected a lot more production than the Braves delivered, but was that reality or perception? When taking a look at this year’s numbers, compared to the prior season when the Braves won the division, how do things stack up? That was the question I wanted to pose in this week’s edition of Magic Numbers.
The Braves won 96 games in 2013, and they were 10 games ahead in the division at the end of the year. It wasn’t a close race at all because the closest “competition”–and I use that term loosely last season with the Nats–had 86 wins and barely finished over .500. So on this date (which I’m picking as Jun 29th), how did things stack up in 2013? Frankly, it was a lot different than the division race we see in 2014. Last season at this point, the Braves were 47-34, and they were 6.5 games up on the Nationals, who were 40-40. The race was essentially over at that point, as the lead only got bigger in the last 3 months.
On June 29th, 2014, the Braves are 44-38 and only a half game up on the Nats, who sit at 43-38. The race is a lot closer since the Braves are 3 games worse in the win column of last season’s pace, and the Nats are 3 games better. However, one of the biggest differences is run differential. The Braves are currently dead even in differential while the Nats are +38. Last season on this date, the Braves were +64 and the Nats were -30. That is an absolutely huge swing comparatively. I’m talking like John Goodman at Golden Corral huge.
What about team averages in comparison to the the last season totals? Right now the Braves team is hitting .242 with an OBP of .303, and a slugging of .377. That’s a total OPS of .681 on the season thus far. In 2013, the Braves finished with a .249 average, .321 OBP, and .403 slugging for an OPS of .723. The big difference in those numbers is the 18 points of OBP and 26 points of slugging. That’s a 42 points OPS swing in the bad direction for the offense, and it’s a big reason why the run totals are down for the Braves this year. In fact, if you compare production at the midway point, the Braves have scored 42 fewer runs. The fact that it’s 42 OPS points and 42 runs is simply a coincidence, but it really drives home the notion that OPS points on a season matter for production.
Again, when just looking at hitting, the Braves shouldn’t be in first place. I mean honestly, the way the Braves are hitting they would be sitting in third in any other division. The big reason is the pitching staying the course, even with some June hiccups. Still, is the pitching just as good as last season? The answer is not really. Last season the Braves had given up 276 runs by this date, this season they’ve given up 298. That’s a difference of 22 runs. Right now the team ERA for the Braves is 3.28, but last season the Braves finished with a team ERA of 3.18 and that was best in the majors. I think it really emphasizes how special last year was for the Braves even if the fans didn’t fully realize it.
As things stand, this Braves team is worse in every major category than the 2013 team. This season isn’t going to be the cakewalk that last season was because Washington isn’t anywhere near as bad. I point this out because people ask why this team can’t seem to hit with RISP, or with any consistency. The reason is the Braves are objectively worse in a year-by-year comparison. The moves the team expected to pay off, haven’t. Justin Upton, Chris Johnson, and Freddie Freeman had ridiculously awesome seasons last year, but their play this year hasn’t been as consistent. They still have time to get the job done, but this team has a lot of ground to cover to make up a 42 run deficit.
I know what you’re thinking. Wow, way to write a whole Magic Numbers section on how we stink, you jerk. While that’s true, I have some sunshine at the end of this cloudy numerical onslaught. The upside out of all of this is that the Braves are doing more with less. They could have easily folded under the pressure of not hitting, or the pitching staff struggling in June. Instead, they’ve taken advantage of the weak June schedule and just swept the Phillies in 4 games in Philadelphia.
I believe this team is mentally stronger than last year’s team. The teams that win World Series are the ones that get hot in September and October, and that are mentally tougher than the guys in the other dugout. I think last year the Braves had it too easy, and they got shell-shocked in the playoffs. This year if the Braves make it into the post-season, I think you’ll see some battle-hardened guys that won’t panic if they go down 1-0 early. They will have been through the trenches of the regular season and emerged scarred but unbowed.
Next week, the Braves head home after a long road trip to face the struggling Mets and Diamondbacks. Both of those squads are due for some Braves revenge as well. Let’s hope Atlanta can show up with the same bats they whipped out in Philadelphia.