Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates preview: Ervin Santana vs. Vance Worley

The Atlanta Braves swept the Oakland Athletics this weekend, taking down two top pitchers in Sonny Gray and Jon Lester in the process. It’s exactly what the team needed to try and right the ship, but with the Nationals riding a six-game winning streak, the Braves still trail in the division by six games. In the wild card picture, the Braves are 1.5 games behind the Cardinals from getting one of the two NL spots.

Ironically, the team is set for a three-game road series with the Pittsburgh Pirates–who are also 1.5 games out of the wild card.

The Pitching Match-up:

Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Braves in this one and he’s done extremely well in his previous five starts. His most recent game was a six inning, two-run bid against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he struck out nine batters and walked just two. On the season, Santana has a 3.66 ERA to go along with a 3.13 FIP and 3.33 xFIP. He’s striking out 8.22 batters per nine and walking 2.70 per nine.

Vance Worley will get the rock for the Pirates, and while he’s got a shiny 2.51 ERA for the season, his peripherals show that he hasn’t actually pitched that well. He’s got a fairly low strikeout rate (5.69 K/9) to go along with an excellent walk rate (1.46 BB/9), but his other numbers suggest he’s been a bit lucky. His BABIP allowed is more than 30 points lower than his career number, he’s left almost four percent more runners on base, and his FIP/xFIP numbers are both more than a run higher than his ERA (3.59 and 3.66).

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