Do The Braves Have The Worst Bullpen in Baseball?

It’s been a very up and down year for the Atlanta Braves bullpen. There have been times where the seventh through ninth innings have been automatic thanks to Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, and Jason Grilli. Some nights, the eighth inning drags on like a Ben Stein lecture on Voodoo Economics. Overall, this season has been positive for the Braves. I don’t get the feeling we’re watching a rebuilding team most nights. The batting order, until recently, has consistently manufactured runs. The starting rotation now has five promising starters all under age 25. The defense plays solid most nights. But the dark mark on Atlanta’s season thus far has been its bullpen. Though it may look like it, do the Atlanta Braves really have the worst bullpen in all of baseball?

Atlanta is 29th in the Majors with a -1.7 Wins Above Average from its relief corps. Only the Oakland Athletics’ ‘pen costs its team more games (-1.9). Collectively, yes, it’s been a major weakness for the team, but there have been bright spots in the Atlanta ‘pen. Jason Grilli has 14 saves already. Jim Johnson most nights forces a lot of ground ball outs with his power sinker as the team’s setup man. Luis Avilan gets the team out of many sticky situations as the team’s lefty specialist. Even rookie Brandon Cunniff needed to face 31 righties before surrendering a hit. I feel like we’re just not seeing something with this bullpen. It’s not as bad as it seems, is it?

More from Atlanta Braves

The Braves bullpen allows 4.38 runs per game, a little worse than the league average of 4.17. It’s not great but we’re better than Milwaukee (5.00) or Colorado (5.04). Our relievers have lost us 9 games, but Seattle (12) and Oakland (13) are worse. We’ve blown six saves, but Miami (9) and Arizona (10) have blown more opportunities than the Braves. Believe or not, we’re actually tied with San Francisco for most holds in the National League with 31. Yes, we don’t have a great bullpen but something isn’t adding up. It seems like we’re in the bottom third in most team relief categories and not dead last. What are we failing to understand?

Inherited runners are not being knocked in on Atlanta (17%). Only the Giants do a better job of stranding runners than the Braves (15%). Poor Philadelphia (50%)… I’m looking at advanced relief statistics and I might be on to something with the Braves. I think the young and tired Braves bullpen is experiencing too many high stress situations than it’s capable of handling.

Though Atlanta is just above average stress level in terms of Average Level Index (aLI) with a 1.015 (think of 1.00 as baseline average), the team pitches in more medium to high stress innings of relief than low stress innings. Atlanta has pitched in 59 high stress innings (aLI over 1.5) and 31 medium stress innings (aLI between 0.7 and 1.5). Only Washington has pitched fewer low stress relief innings (less than 0.7 aLI) than Atlanta in the National League (WSH 44, ATL 47).

I think what this means is that the Braves are pitching and losing more close ball games because of their bullpen than anyone in the league. It makes sense because the middle relief corps is so incredibly young. Teams that have performed worse than the Braves so far in 2015 (Colorado, Miami, Milwaukee, etc.) are seemingly getting blown out in their defeats because their starting rotations are inferior to what Atlanta has cooking down south.

Overall, the 2015 Atlanta Braves bullpen is not good but looks so much worse by comparison to its promising young rotation. Though it may feel like we’re watching a late inning train wreck most nights, our bullpen is more mediocre than atrocious when compared to the rest of the MLB. I’ll try to remind myself in the wee hours of the morning that Atlanta has more of a 22nd rated bullpen not a 29th when the walks start to emerge in the twilight back East during this West Coast road trip.

Home/Atlanta Braves