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Julio Teheran: Are The Atlanta Braves Going to Move Him?

By John Buhler

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The Atlanta Braves enter their weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals five games below .500 (45-50).  Today is exactly one week away from the much-anticipated trade deadline.  Only this year the Atlanta Braves are likely to sell off many of their valued assets for promising young players during this hyper-accelerated rebuilding process of President of Baseball Operations John Hart.

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Outside of the usual suspects of potential trade candidates on the 2015 Atlanta Braves (Cameron Maybin, AJ Pierzynski, all three Johnsons), I’ve heard one different name that really moves the needle.  Is John Hart shopping around SP Julio Teheran?

While Teheran is having a down 2015 and can’t seem to put it all together on the road in the first four months of the season, I’m not sure that I want Hart to move Julio.  Coming up through the Minors, Julio Teheran and teammate Shelby Miller were the Top 2 pitching prospects of their age group in 2011-12.  Both Braves starters are only 24 years of age and have already made appearances in All-Star Games: Teheran (2014) and Miller (2015).

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    • But this year we have seen that Julio Teheran may not live up to the hype of being an ace of a staff.  Is he a top end of the rotation caliber starting pitcher?  Overwhelmingly yes, but he’s been too inconsistent with his fastball command to have that type of anointment.  However, Julio Teheran does have the grit and determination to succeed in a deep rotation as a second or third starter on a contending team.

    I’m looking at Julio’s contract with the Braves, a 6-year, $32.4 Million deal signed before last season with a team option in 2020.  To me that contract is lengthy but a moveable one, with roughly 4 plus years of control at a little over $5 Million per year.  So it’s actually one of the better deals Frank Wren put together before the 2014 MLB Season.  Teams may look at Julio’s upside and continued growth and see Julio Teheran as a coveted piece for their rotation.

    If I were John Hart, I would at least entertain offers for Julio Teheran to see which combination of top prospects the Atlanta Braves could get for him.  One potential trade partner that kind of makes sense is the Los Angeles Dodgers.  LA needs to find a third starter behind Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw if they want to contend for a World Series in 2015.  Julio would be the best 3rd starter in all of baseball should he end up getting moved to LA.

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    In return, I would venture to guess that the John Hart would ask for one, possibly two of LA’s top pitching prospects: LHP Julio Urias, RHP Grant Holmes, or RHP Jose De Leon.  If Hart can’t get Urias then it’s no deal for shipping Julio Teheran to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Even if Greinke opts out of his deal this winter, you don’t want to give the Dodgers the opportunity to have a three-headed monster in that rotation unless you are getting their best pitching prospect in return.

    Are there other potential trade partners out there for Julio Teheran?  Of course, but I would not make a move just to make a move with Julio Teheran.  I look at 2015 as a minor hurdle that he will overcome as he gets back to pitching at an All-Star level again in 2016.

    My guess is that Julio Teheran stays put this season and for the foreseeable future with the Atlanta Braves.  But should John Hart be able to pull off a Touki Toussaint steal of a trade with any contending team, then I guess I could learn to stomach seeing Julio Teheran pitching for somebody else.

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