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Atlanta Braves: Predicting 2016 Starting Rotation

By Matthew Schoettler

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As the Atlanta Braves’ 2015 season draws to a close, let us shift focus on what the 2016 starting rotation could look like.

The 2015 season for the Braves has been an utter disaster, barely showing us fans what to expect in the years to come. Nearly every rookie, for the Braves, that has seen significant playing time has struggled at the top-level. No rookies jump out as impact performers, both in the rotation and out on the diamond.

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The Atlanta Braves rotation this season has taken a step back from last year. Although Shelby Miller has been a lone bright spot in the rotation, he has not won a game in his last 21 starts, which shows how poor the team has performed over the stretch-run of the season.

Most Braves’ fans probably did not expect for Miller to showcase front-end rotation talent and usurp Julio Teheran as the club’s go-to arm, but he has been a nice addition to the team. However, his 21-start winless streak hints that he does not yet have the tools to become a front-end arm capable of winning every time he toes the rubber, something the Atlanta Braves desperately need. 

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By Shelby Miller being unable to carry the “ace” label this season, it is safe to assume that he could be a quality number two starter for the club in 2016. Julio Teheran figures to slot in behind Miller in the rotation for 2016, if the Atlanta Braves choose to hold on to him this offseason.

Coming off of a 2014 All-Star campaign, Teheran took a huge step back in 2015, posting arguably his worst numbers of his career (4.38 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.32 WHIP). Moreover, Teheran saw his BB/9 increase from 2.1 in 2014 to 3.2 in 2015, an unsightly regression. He also has given up more home-runs this season than any other season of his career.

Although Julio Teheran took a step back this season, Braves’ management and fans alike should not write him off in the long run, as he could have very likely just suffered a down season. Thus, he figures to stand as a more-than-capable option for next season’s rotation.

The number four and five spots in the Atlanta Braves’ rotation are somewhat cloudy. A slew of arms figure to compete for the two spots including: Mike Minor, Matt Wisler, Manny Banuelos, and Mike Foltynewicz.

Barring no setbacks from season-ending shoulder surgery, Mike Minor seems likely a front-runner for one of the spots. Minor missed the entire 2015 campaign due to injuries; additionally, he has suffered from injuries over the last two seasons. With that being said, it is unsure what to expect from Mike Minor as he gears towards a fresh, injury free 2016.

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    • Assuming Minor would be the Atlanta Braves number four starter, that leaves Wisler, Banuelos, and Foltynewicz. to fight for the last spot. Braves’ upper management are high on Matt Wisler (ranked as the 2nd best Braves’ prospect entering this season per MLB Pipeline); thus, it is likely that it would be his spot to lose.

    Manny Banuelos looked good early on this season; however, as of late, injuries have derailed his promising 2015 season. Consequently, Banuelos has seen his ERA balloon over his last few starts, making him a viable option out of the bullpen in 2016. As a lefty with a nice arsenal of pitches, Banuelos could be an effective reliever that could cover multiple innings.

    Like Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz is likely better-suited for the bullpen as well. With a fastball that touches the upper 90s, Folty could prove himself as a valued asset to a sub-par bullpen that is in dire need of impact arms. Foltynewicz has been awful this season in the rotation, and that could be in large-part to hitters seeing him multiple times per outing.

    By removing Foltynewicz from the rotation, he could see added success and could provide a power arm to the back-end of the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen, especially with a fastball that no one on the Braves’ roster can match. He could very-well be seen next season in high-leverage situations, with possibly being a setup man.

    So, the obvious question is: who will be the Atlanta Braves’ ace next season? Based on pure speculation, the Braves could be poised to shop the market to fill the “ace” void that the team ever-so-needs. Do not expect the Braves to sign impact arms like David Price, Johnny Cueto, or Jordan Zimmerman because they would command an absurd amount of money and an unfriendly club contract. 

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    However, the Braves could be in the market for names like Mike Leake or Jeff Samardzija. Mike Leake has spent his entire career in the National League, and it would be unlikely he can transition to the American League next season. Additionally, Jeff Samardzija has experience his worst season of his career this year with the White Sox and could be potentially signed at a bargain.

    Samardzija has an extensive history in the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs where he had continued success. The AL has not been so friendly to Samardzija; thus, it could be plausible that he transition back to the NL. Although these pitchers do not fit in the John Hart “plan”, they fit in as much as Hector Olivera and Nick Markakis do, so anything is possible at this point. 

    Next: Freddie Freeman: Return to All-Star Form in 2016?

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