Atlanta Braves: Is finishing .500 the ceiling for 2016?

The 2015 Atlanta Braves finished 67-95. While the team probably won’t make the NL Postseason in 2016, is finishing at .500 a realistic ceiling for the team?

With the Atlanta Braves about to play their final season at Turner Field in 2016 before moving into new SunTrust Park in Cobb County in 2017, what is a reasonable win total to expect for the 2016 ball club?

Atlanta supposedly wants to field a contending team when it begins play in 2017 at SunTrust Park. By contending, one would assume that the 2017 ball club would have a realistic shot at making the NL Postseason, winning somewhere around 90 to 95 games to ensure a Wild Card berth.

However, the 2015 Atlanta Braves were a second half disaster, losing almost every single night once first baseman Freddie Freeman‘s wrist started acting up and the Atlanta front office traded away the entire bullpen. Braves Country doesn’t expect a playoff caliber team in 2016, but may not have enough patience to stomach another 90-loss season in the final year at Turner Field.

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While it is almost inconceivably that the third-worst team in baseball last season will have a 23-game turnaround and win 90 games in 2016, is it too much to ask for a club that could potentially reach a .500 record of 81-81? It’s not a playoff worthy season record by any means, but it should help the organization feel confident about all that lies ahead in 2017 and beyond.

So how would the 2016 Atlanta Braves orchestrate a 14-win improvement to even get to .500 in 2016? There are several things the team and the front office can do to get better in-game results in 2016.

First, team president John Hart and general manager John Coppolella need to prioritize every transaction they make this upcoming season to center around building a strong bullpen. Last year’s bullpen couldn’t hold any lead and it blew dozens of games its starters pitched well enough to win. Having a strong bullpen will shorten games, allow the struggling Atlanta Braves offense to play in close games, and the starters will pitch better as a result.

Second, the Atlanta Braves will need to develop some sort of power in the middle of their lineup. Perhaps Freeman’s wrist doesn’t hold him back in 2016 and he can have another 100 RBI campaign. A full offseason weight training program could help give rightfield Nick Markakis 10+ home run power, not three like in 2015. Maybe left fielder Hector Olivera is a 20+ home run guy if he can play a full big league season? Strikeouts were down in 2015, but so was any signs of power at the plate.

Third, the starting rotation needs to learn from last year’s mistakes and grow in 2016. Julio Teheran and Matt Wisler will have to headline the Atlanta rotation, but both were blue chip prospects in the Minors and have shown signs that they frontline a decent to strong big league rotation.

Figuring out who No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 will be in the rotation will take time, but if the Braves can find two more guys to compliment Teheran and Wisler, the 2016 season win total will likely be an improvement over last year’s.

Lastly, the Atlanta Braves need to play with a chip on their shoulder. Entering 2016, Braves are one of the five-worst teams in the National League and will have to do their very best to prove to the MLB that they aren’t one of the three worst teams in baseball again in 2016. Losing 14 of 15 isn’t going to fly in 2016.

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Realistically, the Atlanta Braves will probably fall short of 81 wins in 2016. However, that seems like a lofty, albeit an attainable goal for a young team that we really don’t know how they will play together for an entire big league season. 70-something wins seems probably, but eking out a few close games could push the Atlanta Braves at or near .500 in 2016.

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