Evaluating Dennis Schröder and His Trade Value Around the NBA
There has been widespread speculation about the future of the roster in Atlanta, specifically around starting point guard Dennis Schröder. That speculation came to a boiling point Monday when he told German media that he was meeting with Hawks leadership to discuss the direction of the franchise moving forward, before specifically mentioning teams that he’d like to end up on.
Given the structure of Dennis Schröder’s contract, that change of scenery will have to come via trade, since he still has 3 more years on his contract for around $46.5 million dollars.
Let’s take an in-depth look at Dennis Schröder and his profile as executives around the league attempt to assign a value to him moving into the offseason.
Offensive Value
Dennis Schröder has a pretty decent statistical profile on the offensive end of the floor, posting marks of 19.4 points and 6.2 assists per game, which might put out the illusion that he is an above-average player on the offensive end of the floor.
This notion is misguided, however, as Schröder struggles with his efficiency numbers, only posting a 51.5% true-shooting percentage and a 46.9% effective field-goal percentage on nearly 30% usage. Schröder is also below average in traditional shooting percentage, shooting only 48% on two-pointers and 29% on three-pointers.
These shooting numbers bear themselves out in the film of Schröder, as well as the popular opinion of fans nationwide. He is viewed as selfish and a ball hog in the Hawks system that typically preaches the gospel of ball movement and taking smart shots, both of which Dennis struggles with.
With the ball-hoggish nature that Schröder portrays on the national stage, his profile, and in turn his trade value, go down significantly, especially in the modern-day NBA that focuses on moving the ball to the open part of the floor.
Schröder’s struggles to play inside of a team construct might have something to do with the distinct lack of talent that surrounded him last season, but in the court of public opinion, Schröder is not a team player that can fit into a system well enough to trade away actual assets to take on his contract.
Defensive Value
On the defensive value of the floor, Schröder is known to be below-average at best. He doesn’t have the foot speed to keep up with the quicker guards in the Eastern Conference, as well as being too light to fight through screens, which he doesn’t really try to do anyway.
The advanced numbers tell us that Schröder is an extreme negative on defense, posting a -2.2 defensive box plus-minus and posting his second-lowest mark on defensive win-shares. Simply put, Schröder struggles on the defensive end of the floor to keep up with the likes of John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and the other quick guards in the Eastern Conference. These struggles don’t bode well for Schröder’s potential trade value, as teams won’t take his contract with his defensive problems that have been evident for his entire career.
Off-Court Troubles
Another huge factor that is causing loads of uncertainty to be present around Schröder is the fact that he is facing felony battery charges stemming from a September arrest at a nightclub in Brookhaven. The pending charges leave a large cloud of doubt over Schröder’s head as he moves into the offseason, and if he were to get convicted of these charges, there could be a potential of his contract being voided entirely as he would have to spend time behind bars.
These charges make trading him more urgent than ever for the Hawks to get some sort of value out of that contract that they signed a few years ago. If they can’t move him and he is found guilty, it could be viewed as one of the biggest disasters in NBA history, both for Schröder personally and for the Hawks financially.
So what does this all mean?
With the negative values in every facet of Schröder’s game against what his contract value is, it will be difficult for the Hawks to find a trade partner for him that won’t be underwhelming from a return value standpoint. Some fans believe that moving up in the 2018 draft is possible when attaching him to a potential deal, but I’m not so sure about that being the case, given everything that’s going on surrounding the German point guard.
At the most, a team could believe in Schröder’s ability and surrender a first-round pick for him, but realistically, don’t be surprised if the Hawks trade him for a bad contract and a late first-round pick/early second-round pick. The Hawks and Schröder are destined for an ugly breakup, but at this point, it’s in the best interest for both sides to move on from each other moving forward.