Atlanta Braves: Ozzie Albies and the Curse of the Homerun Derby

For the first time since Andruw Jones in 2005, the Braves could have a representative in the Homerun Derby: Ozzie Albies. If offered the opportunity, Albies would be wise to decline.

The Attraction of the Homerun Derby

At 21, Albies is still growing (rapidly) into his skill set. In the minors, we could see the speed, the defense, the contact. There were even hints at the power that lay beneath. But how many expected Albies to be the Braves home run leader in 2018?

At first glance, Albies doesn’t fit the Home run derby mold. Albies’ 5’9 frame dwarfs compared to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and J.D Martinez. He’s not burly like Prince Fielder. His home runs tend more towards lasers that clear the fence by a few rows, not beautiful arcs that crash into the upper deck.

Yet Albies has put on an impressive power show in Atlanta. His 17 home runs put him in the top 20 in home runs. In the NL, he’s tied for 4th, only two Harper’s NL leading 19.

Aside from the numbers, Albies offers extra benefits for MLB if they can convince him to partake in the derby. The league is struggling to draw younger fans. Showcasing one of its younger breakout stars on a national stage could help generate interest from younger fans looking for players to relate to. His energy and playful attitude make Albies an ideal spokesman for younger fans.

The Braves’ organization would also love for him to represent them. An appearance in the derby gives the team more media attention. Analysts will talk about Albies and how his success has contributed to the Braves success. Exposure for Albies means exposure for the Braves. While media might not do much for the guys on the field, it means a lot for ownership and merchandise sales.

Players have their own reasons for accepting home run derby invites. When a player from the team hosting the all-star game receives an invite, he typically takes it with the pride of representing the home fans, like Justin Bour last year and David Wright in 2013.

Some love the act of the home run derby. Todd Frazier competed in the finals of the derby from 2014-2016. Prince Fielder made multiple appearances. Others do it for the experience of being around other players and for a one-off try. For example, Aaron Judge won last year’s event but has said he will decline an invitation to defend his title this year.

The Curse

More and more hitters are becoming hesitant to jump into the Homerun Derby. Aside from Judge, a handful of other players have turned down invites. Alex Rodriguez never accepted an invite. Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout rejected the derby in 2014.

Most recently Yankees rookie the New York Post quoted Gleyber Torres saying he would say no to the Derby this season if asked. “I’m not a home run hitter. I’m a contact hitter,” Torres said.

That mindset feeds the theory of the home run derby curse. The “curse” supposedly causes home run derby participants’ numbers to decline post-derby.

Judge hit 30 home runs with a .329 average before the derby in 2017; he hit nine homers with a dismal .182 average before a blazing final 3 weeks of the season to save his rookie campaign. In 2005 Bobby Abreu hit 18 home runs with a .307 average before the break; he hit six bombs with a .260 batting average after the break. In 2015 Todd Frazier hit 25 homers with a .284 batting average before winning the derby; he hit .220 with 10 home runs for the rest of the season.

These select examples do not reflect the whole field. There may not be a curse at all. Numbers for those who don’t hit in the home run derby drop on average as much as those who participate in the derby.

For right now, though, let’s entertain the idea that Torres is right.

The focus for players during the derby is solely lifting the ball over the fence. The hitting mindset revolves around helping the team win. For the best hitters, the goal is contact. After all, you can’t hit a home run if you don’t make contact.

In derbies, hitters don’t need to worry about contact. They’re hitting softball pitches, not 100mph fastballs from Aroldis Chapman. All of their energy can be focused on generating power.

The “curse” revolves around the concept that players who participate in the derby have their swing altered significantly and cannot fully return to pre-derby form. They’re too focused on swinging for power and can’t find their “contact” swings again.

What does this have to do with Albies?

We’ve already discussed why MLB would love to have Albies in the derby.

Any Braves fan can tell you Albies loves baseball. He plays full speed all the time and keeps the dugout lively. The hi-jinks and camaraderie that occur on the sideline during the derby mesh well with his personality. He would have a blast playing to the camera and fooling around with other All-stars between rounds.

In these ways, the derby is made for a guy like Albies.

But if we want to entertain the curse concept, fans have a reason for concern.

Albies power numbers have ballooned in the majors. At any single level of the minors, Albies hit a maximum of nine home runs in a season. He’s doubled that number in approximately half of a season in 2018. He’s on pace for over 30.

Meanwhile, Albies doesn’t take walks and strikes out more than Braves fans would like in a number two hitter.

Sometimes when Albies is at the plate, it seems like he’s going home run or bust. While the team appreciates the power boost, his skill set is best used when he’s able to get on base. That won’t happen if he’s striking out because he’s trying to hit home runs rather poke a ball the other way for a single.

The fear is that participating in the derby will either a) mess up Albies’ timing at the plate and result in even more strikeouts or b) Albies will carry over that home run or bust mindset for the rest of the season.

As a young player, minor changes could easily influence Albies’ approach and success for the rest of the season. It’s enough to get the most superstitious fans praying for Albies to stay away from the derby.

Fortunately, it’s not those superstitious fans making the decision. The “curse” has no more power than regular wear and tear during a season. Non-participants see their numbers drop just as often and by as much as derby participants do.

Next: Braves Free Agent Targets

If Albies is invited and accepts an invitation to the derby, he will know how to handle himself. Any problems that may arise with a decline in his production hinge on issues that already exist (i.e. being overly aggressive at the plate). The kid should have a good time soaking in his first all-star weekend. Hopefully, it’s the first of many.