Bryce Elder deserves credit for both of the last two starts, putting up what are the best performances Atlanta has watched since the starter's surprise 2023 emergence. After giving up three first-inning runs to the Rockies on Monday night, Elder was able to find another gear and lock the lineup down for the remaining five innings. While it wasn't always pretty, the starter found a way to get it done. This was on the heels of pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals.
It was unquestionably Elder's best back-to-back starts over the last two seasons. It was enough to buy Elder a bit more time in the rotation despite the clear need for change.
Once Spender Strider returns, Atlanta's rotation should be Strider, Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder. However, this is only to buy time for Atlanta to acquire another answer or to bring back AJ Smith-Shawver in the place of Elder. As impressive as the last two starts have been, there is no reason to believe it is sustainable.
Braves Can't Afford to Trust Bryce Elder
It is important to remember that no team in the history of baseball has started 0-7 and made the postseason. This is the position the Braves found themselves in after suffering early sweeps at the hands of the Padres and Dodgers. This rough start promised Atlanta an impossibly slim margin for error and a need to manage every game with a heightened level of urgency. If the Braves are going to catch the Phillies and Mets in the National League East, it is going to take a truly impressive comeback.
One that is going to require the team to treat each series with far more importance than if the team were in postseason positioning. This means removing an unreliable pitcher like Elder from your rotation in favor of a player with a far higher upside. Despite the last two starts, Elder still hasn't looked consistently viable as a piece in Atlanta's rotation. The last time the team started Smith-Shawver, the young starter appeared to be turning a corner.
With dominating stuff that gives the pitcher the ceiling of a top of the rotation option, the Braves would be unwise not to make the switch despite Elder's recent improvements. This obviously changes if Elder were to stack consistently productive starts. Considering the large sample size of struggles, this seems incredibly unlikely.
Atlanta needs to give itself every chance to improve. The healthy level of desperation is clear from the team's recent decisions to jettison Jessie Chavez and Jarred Kelenic in favor of Eddie Rosario and Ian Anderson. This type of decision-making must continue and demands the team look at demoting Elder in favor of bringing in a new piece or giving Smith-Shawver a deserved second look.