The Atlanta Braves made a surprise move this past weekend, optioning starter AJ Smith-Shawver as the team anticipated the return of Spencer Strider. While Smith-Shawver had struggled, the young starter has a far higher upside than Bryce Elder and has taken a step in the right direction in his most recent start. It is a move fans shouldn't expect to stick, understanding what a liability Bryce Elder has consistently proven to be.
Elder's lack of job security dates back to two seasons of consistent struggles that left Atlanta with no option but to search for other options. Elder's first handful of starts in his 2025 return to the rotation has demonstrated the same issues that ended Elder's run with the team each of the past two times the starter has been given a shot at a rotation spot.
Bryce Elder Should Not Stick in Atlanta's Rotation Past the First Month of the Season
Barring unexpected injuries, Atlanta's rotation is going to be Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder. Two moves can happen that cause this to shift, the first is the obvious decision of demoting Elder and bringing Smith-Shawver back to continue to work out his issues at the major league level.
The second is attempting to stabilize the Atlanta bullpen by calling Smith-Shawver up and putting Grant Holmes in the bullpen. Holmes' return to the struggling bullpen appears to be the only path to Elder holding onto his starting role. This is only due to a complete lack of options. The Braves' choice to ignore the rotation wouldn't be as glaring if not for Reynaldo Lopez's early season injury.
Now the team cannot rely on Lopez at all in the 2025 season, with any potential return having a number of question marks. If the Braves do get any contributions from Lopez in the 2025 season, it is most likely going to be in a relief role. Lopez recovering and being able to get stretched out for a return to the rotation seems unlikely.
With this in mind, there is a possible path for Elder remaining in Atlanta's rotation. It simply requires the starter to be anything close to capable, with the Braves having a concerning lack of other options.