The Atlanta Falcons have struggled to compete over the years as they’ve missed the playoffs in seven straight seasons. While they’ve made a slew of bad decisions, they haven’t been as impactful as they’ve played in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions, the NFC South.
The state of the division gives Atlanta some breathing room as they look to compete again in 2025. But that advantage could be going out the window in the future, as a failed playoff rule change should put the Falcons and their division rivals on alert.
Lions’ Failed Playoff Proposal Removed Automatic Spot for Division Winners
According to SI’s Albert Breer, the Detroit Lions withdrew a rule proposal that would have changed the playoff seeding for the upcoming season. In the proposed change, division winners would no longer be given a home game or an automatic playoff spot, as the conferences would be seeded first through seventh. But Breer theorized the league stepped in to preserve important late-season matchups in the final weeks of the regular season.
The proposal would have been devastating for the Falcons if it had passed. In each of the past three seasons, the NFC South champion has not posted a better record than the last team out of the playoffs. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have made it with a 10-7 record last season, their 9-8 record would have been tied with the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints in 2023. The fate would have been even worse for the 2022 Buccaneers, who finished 8-9 with a worse record than the 9-8 Lions.
The NFC South hasn’t had a division champion with more than 10 wins since the Buccaneers went 13-4 in 2021, and it doesn’t look like it’s changing anytime soon. The Bucs have won the division in five straight seasons but are currently stuck in the NFL’s purgatory, where a team isn’t bad enough to tank but not good enough to be a contender. The Carolina Panthers are still trying to find their footing under head coach Dave Canales and quarterback Bryce Young, and the New Orleans Saints are in salary cap hell and had Derek Carr retire due to a shoulder injury.
It opens the door for the Falcons to jump in under the current format, but they’re in a similar spot as the Bucs. After signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in the spring of 2024, they’ve basically slammed the rookie window featuring Michael Penix Jr. shut and would need to rely on winning the division to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
While Atlanta is safe for now, Breer suggests the issue could be revisited in 2026 or when the league expands to 18 games in the future. That could eliminate the automatic home game and put the Falcons at risk of missing the playoffs altogether unless they find a way to rise from the league’s middle class.