The Atlanta Falcons are unquestionable underdogs in Week 1, taking on a Pittsburgh Steelers team with far more established talent. Atlanta still doesn't have any confidence in their starting quarterback situation and will be missing their top two edge rushing options in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Putting it simply, there isn't a viable argument that the Falcons have any advantage, with the Steelers simply needing to load the box and dare anyone other than Bijan Robinson to beat them.
With that said, there is a clear potential path to the Falcons pulling the upset and that is the performance of Aaron Rodgers. The aging star is entering his last season and is 42, an age that rarely produces winning football. Last season it appeared the quarterback didn't want to get hit, fading from sacks and missing plays that the best version of Rodgers made in his sleep.
For the Falcons to win this game, it will require Rodgers taking another step in the wrong direction and being unable to play at the level he did a season ago. Considering how few quarterbacks play at age 42, it really isn't that difficult to believe that Rodgers could turn the ball over and fade away from contact, making mistakes that give the Falcons a chance to pull off the upset.
Falcons Only Chance of Pulling Week 1 Upset Remains Regression from an Aging Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers being one of the league's worst starters is very plausible when looking at last season's results and understanding the possibility of regression. This is where it is important to note that this isn't meant to predict the downfall of Rodgers, but rather pointing out that it remains plausible and perhaps the only obvious path that the Falcons have to pulling off the upset.
Pittsburgh has a Super Bowl winning head coach and more proven defensive talent, leaving Atlanta's lone advantage at the running back position in Bijan Robinson. The back would need to have an elite game, while Rodgers must turn the ball over and show signs of aging.
The more likely scenario remains that the lack of clarity at the quarterback position costs the Falcons, and Rodgers is able to do just enough to move the ball and keep Pittsburgh in control. There simply isn't a clear reason for optimism, as the Falcons lack any clear strength to put your arms around ahead of the 2026 season.
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