I'm not going to say that Kirk Cousins' contract is good. I'm not going to say he's the future of the Atlanta Falcons. I'm not even going to argue that it's the right long-term move to consider him as a potential starter in 2025. But there's a very clear incentive for the Falcons to think long and hard about letting him compete for the QB1 job despite all the drama swirling around his future with the team.
Cousins may very well give the Falcons the best shot at winning the NFC South in 2025. He was better than he was getting credit for in 2024, and despite Michael Penix's long-term upside, it's far from a guarantee that he's already "the guy."
Cousins Was Better Than You Thought in 2024
Let's make believe a shuffling of the schedule. I'm not asking you to take much of a leap of the imagination — we can accept all of Cousins' terrible results as they were. But just re-order the games. If they started 0-4 with his 4 clunkers, then from there he went 7-3 with 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, how different does the conversation look? Or what about if those four games were scattered throughout the season instead of all coming in a row?
Even with that terrible skid toward the end of his season, Cousins finished the year with an average of 6.13 adjusted net yards per attempt. That was right in line with the NFL average, ranking No. 17 among qualifying passers. The three QBs in front of him were Jayden Daniels, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray. Behind him were Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, and Trevor Lawrence.
Michael Penix didn't have enough attempts to qualify, but he would have checked in just two spots ahead of Cousins.
Why I'm Pumping the Brakes on the Penix Hype Train
"Aha!" I hear you cry. "He was already better than Cousins last year; of course, Penix gives the Falcons a better chance of winning." But it would be folly to ignore the competition Penix faced. The Carolina Panthers were a historically bad defense and the worst in the NFL by a massive margin in PFF's grades. The second-worst was the Washington Commanders. The best defense Penix faced was the New York Giants, who still ranked in the bottom 12.
So, Penix, receiving an all-time easy strength of schedule, managed to be slightly more productive than Cousins. (And this is to say nothing of Penix's positive numbers all coming from that final Panthers game.)
Numbers don't tell the whole story; I get it. Penix had some truly sensational plays last year. He absolutely has the potential to be a franchise quarterback and to lead the Falcons for years.
I'm even willing to get on board with the idea that it might be worth hurting the Falcons' chances of winning the division in 2025 to get the long-term benefit of giving Penix more starts. But that doesn't mean we need to ignore the reality of the short-term options.
Hopeful projection reaches its yearly peaks from March through May. Fans are always certain their team's skilled young players are all going to take the next step. But we've seen time and time again that "he looked really good as a rookie" is not something that guarantees a big leap in Year 2.
Cousins' contract means there aren't a lot of exciting situations that involve trading or releasing him this offseason. From that perspective, a lot of fans are resigned to having him on the roster for 2025, assuming him to be the QB2.
But the case for keeping Cousins on the roster is a lot bigger than that: if Terry Fontenot and Raheem Morris want to win the NFC South, they will give Cousins a genuine chance to win the starting job in training camp.