The Atlanta Falcons are heading into the 2026 season in a division that remains wide open. Long gone are the days of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton vying for a division that demanded a level of respect. The NFC South has become an understandably disrespected division with none of the four teams doing anything to change this. With the offseason in the books and training camp closing in, it is fair to look ahead and consider expected records and how the division will shake out.
Leading us to predict the finishing order of the NFC South and whether or not the Falcons will put together their first winning season dating back to 2017. Something that fans might have to keep waiting for, with the division continuing to play out in frustrating fashion.
1. Tampa Bay Bucs- 9-8
Tampa Bay winning the division yet again is based on the fact that they continue to roster the most proven talent and have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield. While they are far from unbeatable, the roster finds ways to scrap games out, and there isn't any reason to believe the season ahead is going to be any different than what we've seen over the last two years.
The Bucs are incredibly vulnerable; the issue is simply that there isn't one roster in this division that screams it is capable of taking advantage of the clear opening. Barring the unexpected, the Bucs hang onto the division for yet another season.
2. Atlanta Falcons 7-10
A surprisingly difficult schedule and the lack of clarity at the quarterback position make it impossible to predict a winning record. Nothing fans have seen from Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. over the past two seasons suggests that this is going to be a capable offense. Add in questionable depth at receiver and at the corner position there is every reason to believe this is a team whose ceiling is 7 wins.
The only thing that can change this is one of the quarterbacks going on a surprise run. Whether that is Penix turning into the franchise quarterback he was expected to be, or Tagovailoa turning back the clock to the best version of himself, neither of these outcomes seems probable, leaving the Falcons mired in a decade of losing frustration.
3. New Orleans Saints 5-11
There isn't any question that if the Falcons are going to be miserable, the only thing that is going to bring them a bit of joy is watching a hated rival suffer the same fate. While Tyler Shough looks the part of a capable starting quarterback, this is an aging roster with a number of positional concerns and a lack of consistent playmaking that will leave them with an incredibly limited ceiling.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see the year fall apart in the first half if Shough isn't able to shoulder the load as expected. No question, the moment that Brees walked out the door, the franchise no longer mattered in the division picture.
4. Carolina Panthers 5-11
Bryce Young is a master of doing just enough to keep his starting role, and this past season wasn't any different. Still, Carolina isn't going to be a player in the division late in the season based on their quarterback's limitations and a coaching staff that has every reason to be questioned. The Panthers are the third or fourth best team in this division, and the only thing that this is good enough for is solid draft positioning.
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