After a long winter, the Atlanta Braves are starting the 2025 season where last year ended. The Braves gutted their way through injuries to make it back to the playoffs last season. But they ran into a buzzsaw, getting swept by the San Diego Padres in a best-of-three National League Wild Card Series.
There haven’t been too many big changes between the two clubs since last winter with the exception of Jurickson Profar switching dugouts. But it should be an intriguing series between two teams with high expectations. In this article, we’ll take a look at how the series could shake out and see if Atlanta can get some revenge for last year’s playoff defeat.
Game 1: Chris Sale (ATL) vs. Michael King (SD)
Sale will kick off his campaign to defend the National League Cy Young Award in a great place, as he performed well against San Diego last season. Although he went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in a pair of starts against the Padres, he has a worthy opponent after King tossed seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in San Diego’s victory in Game 1 of the Wild Card series.
Bryan De La Cruz is the lone Braves hitter with significant experience against King, going 1-for-4 with three strikeouts and a walk. But the Padres have seen some success against Sale most including Manny Machado (8-for-23, HR, 2B, 2 RBI) and Xander Bogaerts (6-fot-17, HR, 2 RBI).
In the end, you can see both aces turning in solid performances, which would turn things over to the bullpen. The Braves would have the advantage here with Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee setting things up for Raisel Iglesias. But it will take some offensive success against King to get there.
Prediction: Padres 2, Braves 1
Game 2: Reynaldo López (ATL) vs. Dylan Cease (SD)
López has limited experience against the Padres but it hasn’t gone well. He allowed five earned runs in 12.1 innings against San Diego in 2024 and Luis Arráez owns a career .423 average against the right-hander.
Fortunately for the Braves, they’ve had success against López’s former teammate with the Chicago White Sox. Cease was the subject of offseason trade rumors but will face the Braves in his first start of the season. Atlanta tagged Cease for five earned runs in 10 innings pitched last year and Matt Olson has had some success against the right-hander, going 3-for-10 with a home run and three RBI.
Once again, this could come down to the bullpen. With more success against the starter, the Braves should have the advantage.
Prediction: Braves 4, Padres 3
Game 3: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs. Kyle Hart or Randy Vásquez (SD)
Saturday’s game is slated to be in front of a national audience. But the Padres haven’t listed their starting pitcher for the marquee matchup. The good news? Neither option has pitched well against the Braves during their careers.
Hart was a former member of the Boston Red Sox organization and made one start against the Braves during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Marcell Ozuna smashed a pair of homers in that start, but Hart has rediscovered himself pitching in the Korean Baseball Organization and will look to make a turnaround. Vásquez also has an 0-3 record and 4.00 ERA in his career against the Braves.
It lines up well for Atlanta, who will turn to Schwellenbach. The 24-year-old had an impressive rookie season, going 8-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts. But he also pitched well in his lone Padres, allowing one run over seven innings in a 6-1 win on July 12.
Prediction: Braves 5, Padres 1
Game 4: AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs. Nick Pivetta (SD)
Smith-Shawver was one of the stars of Spring Training, allowing seven earned runs but posting a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 innings. The performance helped him win a spot in the rotation but he’ll go up against a team that posted three earned runs in 1.1 innings in the first game of last October’s Wild Card Series.
If Smith-Shawver can carry his Grapefruit League performance to the regular season, the Braves should be in good shape. Pivetta has an 8-5 record and a 4.93 career ERA in his career against the Braves and has allowed 16 home runs in 100.1 innings. Ozuna owns six of the 16 home runs against Pivetta and should help Atlanta have a chance to win the series.
Prediction: Braves 5, Padres 3