Atlanta Hawks Look To Retain Core, Re-Sign Paul Millsap

Free agency is officially underway for the Atlanta Hawks. Perhaps the most important targets are already on the team – Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. Both players rejected longer contract offers in favor of inexpensive 2-year deals, betting on themselves to have good seasons with the Hawks. Those bets have turned out well, and both players stand to get pay raises after the best seasons of their career.

Paul Millsap, the quiet man from Louisiana, is coming off his second straight All Star appearance for the Hawks. Millsap averaged 16.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He increased his field goal percentage to 47.6 percent and played a crucial role in the Hawks’ offense, spacing the floor with his ability to knock down threes and mid-range jumpers. Millsap’s play declined in the postseason due to a shoulder injury, but the injury will not require surgery and he should be healthy for next season.

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That said, Millsap recently turned 30 and most likely will not seen drastic improvement his game. He is an under-sized power forward and at times can look slow on defense. Millsap is a passable three-point shooter, but his slow release allows him to take mainly uncontested looks. The real question remains how much money Millsap will command on the open market, and whether he would be willing to accept a pay cut to stay with a Hawks team he thinks might be able to win a championship.

Atlanta’s salary cap for next season is projected at $67.1 million. The Hawks have 10 players under contract next season for less than $40 million. That leaves around $28 million to sign Carroll, Millsap, and any other potential free agents. Zach Lowe breaks down the contract situation in Atlanta:

"To wit: Millsap’s maximum salary will be about $18.9 million, meaning that if Millsap wants his max — or thinks he can get it from another team — the Hawks will have to dip into their cap room to pay him. If Atlanta goes over the cap, it can sign Millsap to a deal starting at only $16.6 million per season. And if they use $19 million in cap space on Millsap, they would not have enough left over to re-sign Carroll. Even trading one low-cost player to clear space might not be enough.If Millsap is cool taking that $16.6 million, the Hawks can keep his cheaper cap hold on the books and work their way to something like $12 million in space to use on Carroll — or a replacement — before re-signing Millsap"

So what is Paul Millsap really worth? Knowing the frugal history of the front office, I do not expect new ownership to suddenly become lavish and splurge on Millsap. $19 million dollars annually is arguably over-paying an aging Millsap, and $16.6 million per year seems more than reasonable (it would be $7 million more than he has ever made).

Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

While other teams have expressed interest (New York and Los Angeles), they have been destinations for rebuilds not immediate success. As he said to Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, the quality of the team is important to his decision:

"“I think looking at different options, looking at this team, looking at what we’ve built thus far, in weighing my options I can’t make a decision right now,” Millsap said. “It’s been a long series, a long year, for me and the team. Let things die down, cool off, relax and think about it a bit. We are a family. This team is close. It will play a lot into the decision.”"

Coming off an exciting 60 win season with the franchise’s first trip to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Hawks have a less exciting free agency ahead of them. Well-suited for the impending 2016-2017 free agency crapshoot, the team’s focus is on retaining its core and building on its success this summer. Best case scenario, the Hawks re-sign their starting forwards and acquire some solid free agent using the $2.8 million room exception (Lowe mentioned Gary Neal as a possibility due to his connection with Budenholzer in San Antonio). Atlanta may ditch some of their smaller contracts (Pero Antic immediately comes to mind), but not very much action will be in store.

Worst-case scenario, the Hawks lose Millsap to a higher bidder. John Buhler discussed the possibility of Greg Monroe joining Atlanta, and while the Detroit star could add some much-needed rebounding and defense, the Hawks front office would surely prefer to keep a player who has already proven successful in Budenholzer’s system. However, Atlanta may prefer to keep DeMarre Carroll because replacement wings of his quality are hard to find while a plethora of options at power forward not only are available in free agency but also on the team (Moose could start getting loose every night). The Hawks have stated that they are confident they can re-sign both Millsap and Carroll, and while bringing back Millsap will maintain the Hawks size limitations that became clear in the playoffs, Coach Bud is confident they can overcome those problems and return to their regular season form.

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