ATL All Day
Fansided

Thabo Sefolosha: Better Defensively than DeMarre Carroll?

By Jonathan Savitske

facebooktwitterreddit

Thabo Sefolosha was lost for the rest of the 2015 season following an altercation with the NYPD in April.

Before he went down, Thabo Sefolosha was arguably the Atlanta Hawks most valuable defensive player, whether in a starting capacity or coming off the bench to spell DeMarre Carroll. With Carroll’s departure to the Toronto Raptors in free-agency, many fans and analysts are concerned that the lack of his defense will affect the Hawks in an adverse way.

-= Related: Atlanta Hawks: 5 Players in SI’s Top 100 =-

Recently, ESPN predicted that the Atlanta Hawks would win 10 less games in the upcoming season, going 50-32 to tie for second in the Eastern Conference with the Chicago Bulls. The Worldwide Leader undervalued DeMarre Carroll all throughout the 2014-2015 season, but then as soon as Carroll bolted, he was worth 10 wins a year. To add insult to injury, ESPN then predicted just this week that the Hawks had the 5th best chance to win the East behind the Washington Wizards, the Miami Heat, the Chicago Bulls, and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Live Feed

Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Nikola Jokic, Lakers-Mavericks)
Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Nikola Jokic, Lakers-Mavericks) /

Betsided

  • Every NBA Team's Odds to win the NBA Championship After In-Season TournamentBetsided
  • Best NBA Odds for Every Game Today (Tuesday, Dec. 12)Betsided
  • Hawks' Quin Snyder reacts to Trae Young's ejection in loss to NuggetsSoaring Down South
  • Insider lists Hawks among 'expected' trade suitors for NBA championSoaring Down South
  • Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Jamal Murray)Betsided

    • Not to diminish DeMarre Carroll’s importance to last year’s club — and though I do not believe the Hawks will win 60 games again this year — but it is a completely erroneous assertion to believe that Carroll’s defense is worth 10 wins for the Hawks — especially when Thabo Sefolosha is returning.

    While it is uncertain the actual effect Fred Hoiberg will have on his new club, or how the departure of Paul Pierce will effect the Wizards, or if Dwyane Wade can remain healthy and the Heat can gel, it is unreasonable to assume that a team that was the top seed in the Eastern Conference last year will plummet beneath all of these clubs all because of the loss of one player.

    “Though great significance has been placed on DeMarre Carroll’s ability to defend on the wing, Thabo Sefolosha is a better defensive player and will help the Atlanta Hawks be a better defensive team next year.”

    Though great significance has been placed on DeMarre Carroll’s ability to defend on the wing, Thabo Sefolosha is a better defensive player and will help the Atlanta Hawks be a better defensive team next year. There, I said it.

    DeMarre Carroll did not rank in the top 30 players last season to post at least a +7 per 48 minutes according to Basketball-Reference.com. When comparing Thabo Sefolosha and DeMarre Carroll defensively, opposing players shot 5.5 percent less than their average when guarded by Sefolosha, but above their mean when defended by Carroll.

    May 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) handles the ball against Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) during the first quarter in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

    In 18.8 minutes per game last year while playing in only 52 games, Thabo Sefolosha corralled 4.3 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1 steal per game — impressive numbers for a player with less than 20 minutes on the court per game. On the other hand, Carroll averaged 5.3 rebounds, 0.2 blocks and 1.3 steals in 31.3 minutes per game. Sefolosha has comparable numbers when playing nearly half the minutes that Carroll did last season.

    As the presumptive starting Small Forward for Mike Budenholzer’s team this upcoming season, it is clear that DeMarre Carroll’s offense will be missed more than his defense when compared to Thabo Sefolosha. Though that may seem like an issue, I feel that Carroll’s offensive contributions will not be missed at all.

    More from Atlanta Hawks

    With more playing time, Thabo Sefolosha will be relied upon more for his defensive contributions, though he has an effective stroke from beyond the arc and has the ability to cut to the basket. By acquiring Tim Hardaway, Jr., Tiago Splitter and with the development of players like Kent Bazemore, there are more than enough players to alleviate any losses in production due to Carroll’s exit.

    I love DeMarre Carroll as a player and the grit and grind attitude he brings to a team; but I truly believe that the Atlanta Hawks will be an improved offensive and defensive squad with Thabo Sefolosha as the starting Small Forward (so long as he remains healthy). Though Carroll will be missed, I am confident that the Atlanta Hawks will exceed both expectations and disappointing media predictions once again this season.

    Next: Tiago Splitter: Helps the Hawks More on Offense or Defense?

    More from ATL All Day

    Home/Atlanta Hawks