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Atlanta Hawks: Over/Under 49.5 Wins in 2015-16?

By John Buhler

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The Atlanta Hawks enter 2015-16 with an over/under of 49.5 for wins on the year and 25:1 odds to win the NBA Championship. Are these projections too high or too low for our Atlanta Hawks?

No, the Atlanta Hawks will not win 60 games again in 2015-16 like they did last year. In fact, the only team The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook likes to win over 60 games in 2015-16 is the reigning NBA Champion Golden State Warriors, who enter the year with an over/under of 60.5 wins.

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However, the loss of SF DeMarre Carroll should not account for a 10 game swing in the negative direction for the Atlanta Hawks in over/under with wins. Vegas has the Atlanta Hawks projected to win 49.5 games and have 25:1 odds to win it all in 2015-26. Are either of these totals right or are they both egregious?

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The 25:1 odds to win it all sounds reasonable, with only the Cleveland Cavaliers (2:1) and the Chicago Bulls (12:1) having a better shot than Atlanta according to Vegas. I feel that the odds are on the low-end of the spectrum of rationality with this team. Late teens to mid-twenties seems fair in early October.

On the contrary, 49.5 wins is ridiculously low. I see the 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks as a 53-57 win team. The Hawks got better on defense with the acquisitions of C Tiago Splitter and wing Justin Holiday. Wing Thabo Sefolosha appears healthy entering 2015-16 and who knows what to expect out of rookie C Walter Tavares.

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    • The more I think about it, the more I like the trade to get SG Tim Hardaway, Jr. I think he’s got the potential to become that go-to scorer for us off the bench. We will need that should we want to see our Hawks rattle off another deep Playoff run. Plus, I think his defensive game improves playing for a winner in HC Mike Budenholzer’s system.

    I like Atlanta’s chances to win 60% of their games against the Western Conference. Coach Bud’s familiarity with the West will again hold true in 2015-16. How many other teams in the East can we safely say will go 18-12 versus the West? Maybe Cleveland or Chicago? That’s it.

    Do I think the East will play tougher in 2015-16? Yes, but I still find the Atlanta Hawks to win roughly 80% of their games at home and finish above .500 against the West. To me, that sounds like a team that worst case scenario wins at least 50 games this winter. 52.5 over/under sounds more realistic to me. Even then, Atlanta still feels like a 55-27 team that will win the Southeast Division and play in an Eastern Conference Finals. We’ll find out soon as Atlanta Hawks basketball is only 22 days away. Let’s Go Hawks!

    Next: Atlanta Hawks: Best Passing Team in NBA in 2015-16?

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