Atlanta Hawks: Winning the East Is Not Farfetched
By John Buhler
The Atlanta Hawks are still a very dangerous team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. The thought of the team winning the East in 2016 is not that farfetched.
For some reason, people are continuing to write off the Atlanta Hawks entering the 2015-16 NBA Season. Somehow there exists a widespread consensus that the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks were simply a flash in the pan.
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Of course Atlanta won’t get four starters to the NBA All-Star Game in Toronto this February, nor will the club go on a 33-3 stretch and win 60 games in 2015-16. However, I’m failing to understand why this team projects as a team that will go 50-32 or worse.
The over/under win total for the 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks’ regular season is 49.5. Take the over for three reasons: 1. Losing SF DeMarre Carroll does not make this team 11 games worse. The team chose to not re-sign him and opted to recreate him in the aggregate. 2. Mike Budenholzer is one of the best coaches in the NBA and his player development system continues emphasize a culture change within the Atlanta Hawks’ organization. 3. The methodical way of the Atlanta Hawks’ construction is contingent on its entire roster playing hard in the regular season. This team isn’t built to coast into the NBA Playoffs.
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I look at the roster that the Atlanta Hawks have and think it might actually be the deepest roster in the East, in a good way. It seems that both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Bulls, though both are deep, will have unfortunate issues with the minutes logjams they will certainly experience in the front court. The only other team in the East that could have comparable depth is the Miami Heat, but I’ll have to see all of their pieces fit before I can jump to that conclusion.
The Atlanta Hawks’ starting five of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford can compete with any team in the NBA on any given night. Players like Tiago Splitter, Dennis Schroder, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott, Mike Muscala, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. gives the club talented pieces coming off its bench.
Even deep rotational players like Walter Tavares and Lamar Patterson have looked solid in the preseason and will likely play for the Atlanta Hawks, as the club could adequately use all 15 roster spots in the rotation this season.
Before I get into dissecting the flaws in some of the Eastern foes of the Atlanta Hawks, I’d quickly like to add that what HC Mike Budenholzer can bring to the team that other head coaches in the East don’t have is vast experience on how to win in the Western Conference.
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Atlanta again seems like a team that will win at least 60% of its games against the West this season. How many teams in the East can honestly do that in 2015-16? Maybe three teams. Atlanta makes up ground the Eastern Conference hierarchy because of strong play against the West.
So if a team that went 60-22 and played in the ECF the year before, why can’t the Atlanta Hawks get back to the Eastern Conference Finals and possibly win it? Even the odds-on favorite to win the East in Cleveland has some major issues.
While the Cavaliers have the ultimate trump card in Playoff LeBron James, I don’t think we will see the Cavs play their best basketball until the playoffs. The front court yields many concerns for me with Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao coming back from season-ending injuries and what the lingering effects are from Tristan Thompson‘s holdout.
Surely, the dynamic duo of James and PG Kyrie Irving can take this team places, but will the bench be cohesive enough for another deep playoff run? Is David Blatt going to help or hurt the team as Head Coach? Will eccentric owner Dan Gilbert get in the way and force management to make a trade if the team starts out slowly, which could very well happen? Keep in mind that the Cavs were a sub-.500 team before the LeBron Sabbatical and the Timofey Mozgov trade. I like this team, but I’m not blown away by them.
In all honesty, the team that I have the biggest issues with in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference is the Chicago Bulls. This is an immensely talented team, but an infinite number of things could derail this club’s shot at a title in a heartbeat.
The Mayor of Ames, Iowa Fred Hoiberg will now begin his NBA coaching career after several stellar seasons leading his alma mater Iowa State in the Big 12. Hoiberg will take over a defensive-minded team that was painfully driven into the ground by former HC Tom Thibodeau.
Coach Hoiberg is opting to start Nikola Mirotic alongside Pau Gasol in the front court, instead of Joakim Noah. The Mirotic-Gasol combo could yield disastrous results defensively for the Bulls. Noah is entering a contract year and may not appreciate being relegated to a bench role with the team he’s anchored defensively for nearly a decade.
Super sub Taj Gibson may have even less minutes in this rotation with Noah now coming off the bench and rookie Bobby Portis likely needing minutes. What happens if Doug McDermott improves or when Mike Dunleavy returns? There are too many front court pieces and too few minutes to keep everybody happy.
PG Derrick Rose had a tumultuous offseason. He broke his orbital bone, he’s dealing with sexual assault allegations, he’s even commanded more money despite rarely seeing the court since 2012. To further complicate things in the Windy City, SG Jimmy Butler is entering his prime and now thinks that this is his team. To bring it all back home, front court logjams, a potentially rocky relationship in the back court, and a rookie head coach could seriously jeopardize the Chicago Bulls’ chances at an NBA title run.
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What I’m getting at is that I do not believe the Eastern Conference Finals will feature both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Bulls in 2016. While I do believe it will be a rematch between Atlanta and Cleveland in 2016, teams like the Miami Heat, the Washington Wizards, and even the Milwaukee Bucks and the Toronto Raptors have a shot at an ECF bid.
The East is better this season, with possibly only the Boston Celtics making the playoffs with a sub-.500 record. With the East seeming more competitive 1-7, we could have a plethora of Finals matchups in the East, just like we envision in the West.
With the Atlanta Hawks addressing a gaping hole in their rebounding philosophy by trading for Tiago Splitter and bringing Walter Tavares over stateside, Atlanta won’t look powerless against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals should both squads meet again in 2016. Atlanta is not the favorite to win the East, but this club will finish in the Top 3 in the East during the regular season and should push Cleveland to six games in the ECF. Let’s Go Hawks.
Next: Kent Bazemore: Ready to Start?
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