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Dan Quinn: Best Year Coaching New NFL Team?

By John Buhler

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Atlanta Falcons HC Dan Quinn is one of seven head coaches taking over new teams this fall.  Joining Coach Q are Rex Ryan (Buffalo Bills), John Fox (Chicago Bears), Gary Kubiak (Denver Broncos), Todd Bowles (New York Jets), Jack Del Rio (Oakland Raiders), and Jim Tomsula (San Francisco 49ers).  Of these seven coaches, can Dan Quinn have the best season as a first year head coach?

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Many of his peers taking over new teams have had previous NFL head coaching experience.  Rex Ryan had been with the New York Jets, John Fox had coached both the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, Gary Kubiak coached the Houston Texans, and Jack Del Rio use to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars.  So in reality only Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles, and Jim Tomsula are really first time NFL head coaches.

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    • But these three first year head coaches are certainly capable of leading their organizations.  Both Quinn and Bowles led outstanding defenses in the NFC West (Seattle and Arizona, respectively).  Tomsula was part of Jim Harbaugh‘s staff in San Francisco and hopes to ride out the initial rockiness in the 49ers organization into smoother times ahead.

    Of these seven coaches, I only see two having rough first years with their new teams, with those two being John Fox and Jim Tomsula.  Fox has to completely revamp a lost Chicago Bears defense while trying to find a leader on offense.  Tomsula has to essentially land a 49ers plane that is downward spiraling out of control with every familiar face abandoning ship.  Both teams combined might win 12 games in 2015.

    I like the move by the Oakland Raiders to bring in Jack Del Rio as the Men in Black seem like they are finally trending in the right direction after drafting Khalil Mack, Derek Carr, and Amari Cooper the last two seasons.  Oakland could go 4-12 like expect but could play spoiler in the AFC West and go 7-9 and upset the playoff dreams of one of their rivals.  They’ll play better under Del Rio but are still over a year away from being middle of the pack in the AFC.

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    Rex Ryan could very well get the Buffalo Bills back into the playoffs after a 15-year drought.  The Bills will run the ball a ton with LeSean McCoy and their defense will play at a Top 10 level for Ryan.  Remember that Rex took the Jets to the AFC Championship in his first two seasons in New York.  But the AFC East looks better than it ever has with the Jets and Dolphins on the rise, too as New England comes of a Super Bowl victory last season.

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    Bowles like Ryan play in a much improved AFC East and the Jets could contend for a Division Title just as easily as they could finish in last place.  It’s that tight at the moment in the AFC East.  I know that Bowles will have his Jets defense playing at an elite level, but I’m very concerned on the fate of their offense.  How soon before the Jet Faithful clamor for Bryce Petty to start over the incumbent Geno Smith at quarterback?  The Jets will stop some teams on defense, but can they score enough points to compete in the upper levels of the AFC?

    Kubiak replaces John Fox in Denver in somewhat of a lose-lose scenario.  You hope that Peyton Manning can continue to thrive as a Top 5 NFL passer as he approaches 40.  But you also have no idea what to expect out of Brock Osweiler as the future starting QB since he never plays behind Manning.  Denver expects to win a Super Bowl before Manning retires, but time is running out.  John Elway is putting a ton of pressure on his former backup to lead the Broncos to the Promised Land.  While I do see the Denver Broncos as the favorite to win the AFC West in 2015, I’m not sold on them even playing in an AFC Championship, let alone a Super Bowl.

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    While I do think that Dan Quinn has the best situation of any new head coach entering 2015 Training Camp, can he perform in the most preferred scenario?  I like Dan Quinn’s chances to go .500 or better in his first season as the Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons.  Gary Kubiak’s Denver Broncos are going to probably have a better regular season record than the upstart Atlanta Falcons, given that Denver is in win-now mode.

    Though Kubiak’s team has the higher ceiling this year of any new head coach, I think Dan Quinn and his staff will have more fun than Denver’s in 2015.  Even with a better record than Atlanta, both the Falcons and Broncos could have the same number of playoffs victories this year: one.  There’s a ton of good vibes coming from Flowery Branch.  I can’t wait for football season to get here.  Rise Up, ATL!

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