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Dan Quinn: What’s the Deal with NFC South Games?

By John Buhler

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Dan Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons sit at 0-2 in the NFC South, but are a perfect 6-0 against the NFC East and the AFC South. What’s causing this divisional agony?

The first-year of the Dan Quinn Era in Flowery Branch wasn’t going to always be smooth sailing. Though I do expect the 2015 Atlanta Falcons to make the NFC Playoffs as we look forward to a Week 9 road date with the San Francisco 49ers, why are the Dirty Birds not getting it done versus the NFC South?

-= Related: Atlanta Falcons Should Easily Make 2015 NFC Playoffs =-

I’m still attempting to get my head around that the 6-10 2014 Atlanta Falcons will have done better than the 2015 group within the division and we’ve only seen this year’s team play two games in the NFC South.

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In the final year of the Mike Smith Era, the Atlanta Falcons won 5 of their 6 games last year in the NFC South, losing only what was essentially a divisional title game at home against the Carolina Panthers. Even if the 2015 Atlanta Falcons win out, they will do at best 4-2 in the NFC South, after falling to the New Orleans Saints in Week 6 and to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday afternoon.

Keep in mind that this division is one of the most competitive in the NFL. Finishing 4-2 in divisional play is a great year for any of the four teams in the NFC South. The division had not had a repeat winner until the 2014 Carolina Panthers won their fourth NFC South crown. In good times and in bad, the NFC South has always had parity.

Even if the Atlanta Falcons get swept by the Carolina Panthers this year and go 2-4 in the NFC South, the favorable schedule out of the conference bodes well for the Falcons to get to 10 wins. In my eyes, that’s the necessary bench mark to get at least the 6-seed in the NFC. Dan Quinn will join former Falcons coaches Jim Mora II and Mike Smith as rookie head coaches that got the Dirty Birds back in the playoffs.

While I do think that Dan Quinn understands how parity (St. Louis Rams) and rivalry (San Francisco 49ers) can make division games especially difficult from his time in the NFC West as Defense Coordinator of the Seattle, I feel that he still has to learn three unique nuances that come from coaching in the NFC South: 1. Games are more likely to become shootouts than field position battles. 2. Winning in the first quarter might actually be more important than winning in the fourth quarter. 3. This division usually has outstanding quarterback play from all four teams.

When Dan Quinn was a part of Pete Carroll’s staff in Seattle, one could say that all four teams in the NFC West (Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, and St. Louis) gravitated towards a defense-first identity. In some games, it was more likely to see an explosive play from the special teams than the offenses. Though Arizona can put up points with Carson Palmer at quarterback, the NFC West remains a defensive division.

Historically, both Atlanta and New Orleans have been more offensive minded, or since at least realignment. Carolina usually has a strong front seven, but can showcase explosiveness on offense, too. Having Cam Newton helps tremendously. Tampa Bay favors defense, but is looking more offensive by the game in 2015 with Jameis Winston under center.

While all four teams in the NFC South have Pro Bowl weapons on offense (Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Greg Olsen, Vincent Jackson, etc.), it starts and ends with the quarterbacks. Is any other division in the NFL as complete top to bottom at quarterback than the NFC South. I’d have to say going against Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or Jameis Winston for six games a year is tougher than anything Dan Quinn had to plan for in the NFC West when he was with Seattle.

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Brees is Canton bound, Cam Newton is entering his prime, and Jameis Winston is a former Heisman Trophy winner who could become the next Ben Roethlisberger in the NFL. Their similarity in play is uncanny. Since this is a quarterback driven league, it’s tough to defend in a division that has four strong passers.

Because offense stems from superior quarterback play in the NFC South, games are more likely shootouts than low-scoring affairs. I’ve seen both Matt Ryan and Drew Brees put up points in a hurry on stingy Carolina and Tampa Bay defenses. Third down conversions and red zone opportunities dictate these game more than anything expect turnovers.

So how does this hurt Dan Quinn? While Atlanta continues to play its best football in the fourth quarter, it’s more important to seize momentum immediately out of the gate in the NFC South. Once a team builds an early three-score lead, it’s mighty hard to come back from that. These four offenses don’t go three and out very often, which is problematic in clock management when your team is trailing.

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Though Dan Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons overcame a 17-point deficit to force overtime yesterday, that doesn’t hardly ever work in this division. Usually the first team to seize control of the flow of the game doesn’t relinquish it.

Ultimately, the offenses in the NFC South are too solid to feel good about playing from behind. Surely, this conflicts with part of Quinn’s coaching philosophy of being the best finishing team. For his Atlanta Falcons to continue to win in the NFC South, they will need to come out strong from opening kickoff and stop turning the football over in the first half of division games.

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Ball security or lack there of will ruin you in the NFC South. Let these first two divisional losses be a constant reminder to Dan Quinn and his staff. Atlanta should benefit from their next three games all been non-NFC South games (49ers, Colts, Vikings), but will have to figure this division problem out soon. 4 of the Atlanta Falcons’ final 5 games are NFC South games, including two against the Carolina Panthers.

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