Julio Jones: 2,000 Receiving Yards Possible in 2015?

Julio Jones eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yard plateau in only 9 games this season for the Atlanta Falcons. Could he get to 2,000 before the end of the year?

With the Atlanta Falcons in the midst of their Week 10 bye, it’s time for the players to get healthy for the second half of the 2015 NFL season, as well as fans to reflect on the year thus far and speculate what could happen going forward. One thing that immediately jumps to mind is that our star WR Julio Jones is already over 1,000 receiving yards on the year. With 7 games remaining, could Julio get to 2,000 by the end of Week 17? What would that take going forward?

Entering the Week 10 bye, Julio Jones leads the NFL in both receptions (80) and receiving yards (1,029). Though he is averaging his lowest yards per reception total of his career at 12.9 Y/R, he is nearly on par with his stellar, but injury-shortened 2013 campaign in yards per game (114.3 in 2015 compared to 116.0 in 2013).

Should Julio Jones average 114.3 yards in the next 7 games for the Atlanta Falcons, he will have had certainly an All-Pro year for the Dirty Birds, but will have 1,829 receiving yards on the season. That’s essentially one amazing game (171 receiving yards) away from reaching 2,000.

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Assuming that the Week 4 game, the one where Atlanta destroyed Houston, but Julio didn’t go off (4 receptions for 38 yards) was an outlier, he would be averaging an insane 123.875 yards per game. However, should he maintain that average the rest of the way in 2015, Julio Jones would come up just short of 2,000 yards (1,982).

Missing that threshold by 18 yards is really just a single third down completion from QB Matt Ryan to WR Julio Jones. Should Jones be that close to 2,000, expect the Atlanta Falcons’ offense to try to make sure that Julio gets to 2,000.

For Jones to get to 2,000, he would have to average 129.71 receiving yards in the next 7 games to get there. His rapport with Matt Ryan is as good as ever, even in a finicky Kyle Shanahan offense. Jones is Ryan’s security blanket in 2015.

Even with some visible inconsistencies on offense, Matt Ryan routinely throws for over 250 yards a game. He has done that in 16 straight games. Only Dan Fouts and Drew Brees have done it more times consecutively ever. Fouts’ record stood at 17 for over two decades before Brees surpassed him a few years ago. There is no sign that Matt Ryan will slow down in the next three games for the Atlanta Falcons to not hit this (Indianapolis, Minnesota, Tampa Bay).

Essentially, Julio Jones is a little behind pace to reach 2,000 receiving yards, but keep in mind he wasn’t particularly healthy Weeks 4 to 7, hence the slight dip in productivity. Jones does have a history of nagging injuries, but he’ll certainly tough it out going forward. He’s looked great since Week 8’s loss at home to Tampa Bay. The bye should help him and the rest of the banged up Falcons get back to somewhere close to 100%.

Looking ahead to the Atlanta Falcons’ six remaining opponents (Carolina twice), here is how the pass defense for each club looks entering Week 10: Indianapolis (27th), Minnesota (6th), Tampa Bay (11th), Carolina (13th), Jacksonville (25th), and New Orleans (30th).