Atlanta Falcons: Can Team Maintain Wild Card Spot?

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 11 two games up on six teams for the final NFC Wild Card spot. Can the Falcons stay in control of their playoff destiny?

After their Week 10 bye, the Atlanta Falcons have a two-game cushion on the final NFC Wild Card spot. Though they have the same 6-3 record as the Green Bay Packers, since neither team will play head-to-head in the regular season, the Packers currently hold the tiebreaker over the Falcons due to superior divisional play (Green Bay 1-1, Atlanta 0-2).

Even though Atlanta may not catch NFC South leading Carolina (9-0), the Falcons are in a great spot to earn one of the two NFC Wild Card spots. Entering Week 11 after a bye with a 6-3 record and a two-game lead over 7th place should feel like an advantageous position for the Atlanta Falcons to find themselves in.

While I’ve said that going 4-3 in the Atlanta Falcons’ final 7 games would ensure a playoff berth at 10-6, that number could go as low as 9-7 and the Falcons could wind up with the 6-seed. That is because there are seven teams in the NFC that are on the outside looking in at that 6-seed with four wins in the first 10 weeks.

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The Chicago Bears, the Philadelphia Eagles, the St. Louis Rams, the Seattle Seahawks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Washington Redskins are all 4-5. The Atlanta Falcons own the tiebreaker over both the Eagles and Redskins, but lost in Week 8 to the Buccaneers at home in overtime. The New Orleans Saints sit at 4-6 entering their Week 11 bye, two and half games back of Atlanta, but did beat the Dirty Birds on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

Atlanta still has four division games remaining and a date with the NFC North leading Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 at home to round out their NFC slate. The Falcons host Indianapolis on Sunday and have a road affair with AFC South contending Jacksonville on the road, sandwiched between a pair of games with the Panthers. Going 4-3 or better isn’t a certainty, but feels possible, especially now that the team has gone through its bye week.

However, going 3-4 or worse would open up more opportunities for trailing teams to jump Atlanta in the standings. It’s more likely for any of the six 4-5 teams to go 5-2 down the stretch than 6-1. For New Orleans, they’d have to go either 6-0 or 5-1 to reach a seasonal record of 10-6 or 9-7, respectively.

The tiebreakers over Philadelphia, Washington, and NFC East leading New York are huge for the Atlanta Falcons, as are the four remaining NFC South games (two with Carolina, @Tampa Bay, vs. New Orleans) and their home date with the Vikings in Week 12. Not having any say on what goes down in the NFC West between Seattle and St. Louis doesn’t help.