Atlanta Falcons Host 4-5 Indianapolis Colts Sans Luck

The Atlanta Falcons look to get back in the win column after a rough last couple of weeks when they take on Matt Hasselbeck and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-point home favorites versus the 4-5 Indianapolis Colts. Neither team is playing well at the moment, but both clubs have playoff aspirations in 2015 and are coming off much-needed Week 10 byes.

While many Atlanta Falcons’ fans circled this game as one of the more difficult ones on Atlanta’s soft 2015 regular season schedule, they probably didn’t expect to face 40-year-old quarterback Matt Hasselbeck instead of the Colts franchise passer Andrew Luck. Luck will miss several weeks due to a lacerated kidney suffered in the Colts’ Week 9 win over the then undefeated Denver Broncos.

If the season were over today, both the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts would make the playoffs in their respective conference: The Atlanta Falcons would capture the 2nd NFC Wild Card spot/6-seed, while the Colts would win the AFC South like they always seem to do and get the 4-seed in the AFC.

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However, this is almost a must-win game for both teams. Atlanta cannot afford to lose any bit of its two-game lead in the NFC Wild Card race. The Falcons have yet to win an NFC South game and have 6 4-5 teams in the NFC nipping at their heels down the stretch.

Indianapolis holds the tiebreaker over the 4-5 Houston Texans in the AFC South, with the upstart 4-6 Jacksonville Jaguars only half a game back after beating Tennessee at home on Thursday Night Football in solid gold uniforms. If the Colts want to maintain their spot atop the AFC South, they can’t keep losing and give either Houston or Jacksonville the opportunity to catch and overtake them.

While Atlanta would normally feel solid about facing a sub-.500 team starting a backup quarterback, this is the fourth game in 2015 that the Falcons will face a second-stringer under center. Though the Atlanta Falcons did beat Brandon Weeden and Zach Mettenberger earlier this year, they did lose to Blaine Gabbert two weeks ago and Hasselbeck has actually outplayed the injured Andrew Luck in 2015. Hasselbeck is 2-0 in his two starts, while Luck is 2-5 this season.

For Atlanta to beat the Colts this afternoon, they will need to do three things well: 1. Disrupt Matt Hasselbeck’s timing in the pocket. 2. Run the ball with authority. 3. Execute on third down and red zone situations.

Switching Vic Beasley and O’Brien Schofield may help the Atlanta Falcons generate a pass rush. Or not, but at least HC Dan Quinn and his defensive staff are trying something different, so I’ll give them that.

Devonta Freeman had his worst game as a starter in Week 9. With two weeks of rest and a bad memory from a poor game in Santa Clara, expect Freeman to run angry this afternoon.

The third down and red zone opportunities have been there for the Atlanta Falcons, but the team hasn’t been marching down the field as convincingly as they should. Would going up-tempo help QB Matt Ryan get into rhythm? Would some play action fakes help the passing game get more vertical? Would targeting WR Roddy White more help in those situations? All are reasonable options to combat Atlanta’s inefficiencies of late there.

Where I believe Atlanta has the edge in this game in is three areas: Running game, quarterback and defensive front seven. If Devonta Freeman can run like a Pro Bowler, Matt Ryan can orchestrate a few lengthy drives, and Justin Durant and company are healthy, I think that the Atlanta Falcons take some of the pressure off they might feel entering the second half of the season with their 7th win of the season.

Next: Atlanta Falcons: 5 Players to Watch vs. Colts

That would stand as the Falcons’ highest win total since the 2012 team that went 13-3 and lost at home in the NFC Championship Game to the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s to getting the 7th win of the season today!

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 28, Indianapolis Colts 24

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