Atlanta Falcons: So They’re Not Winning the Division…
By John Buhler
The Atlanta Falcons own a decent 6-4 record, but now that division-leading Carolina moved to 11-0 on Thursday, the Falcons aren’t winning the NFC South.
Before the start of the 2015 NFL Season, I had a feeling that the Atlanta Falcons could navigate their initially soft schedule to double-digit wins and make the NFC Playoffs, possibly winning the division. However while at 6-4 on the year entering Week 12, winning the NFC South seems out of reach.
For the Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South at this point, the Dirty Birds would essentially have to win out and the division-leading Carolina Panthers would have to drop their final five games. While a 10-6 record in 2015 should get Atlanta back into the postseason, they aren’t catching the Carolina Panthers who are 11-0 after destroying the 3-8 Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
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So while it stinks that Carolina will certainly three-peat as the Champions of the NFC South, perhaps it takes off some of the pressure for the Atlanta Falcons, by knowing that their only way to the NFC Playoffs is through one of two NFC Wild Card spots. Does Atlanta have enough strength to hold on to the 2nd NFC Wild Card Spots? Who do we need to root against for Atlanta to get either the fifth or sixth-seed this year?
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While the loss at home last week versus the Indianapolis Colts still stings, the Atlanta Falcons still hold a one-game lead with the final NFC Wild Card spot. Both the Seattle Seahawks and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered Week 12 a game back a 5-5.
The Chicago Bear’s surprising road victory over the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Night also impacts the standings significantly. Green Bay drops to 7-4 on the year, losing for of their last five like the Atlanta Falcons. The Packers are currently half a game back of the NFC North leading Minnesota Vikings (7-3) and hold only a half-game lead over the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons for the 1st NFC Wild Card Spot.
Chicago is still very much alive in the NFC Playoffs race. The 5-6 Bears likely won’t catch Minnesota for the NFC North Championship, but are only a game and a half back of Atlanta in the Wild Card race. I expect the feisty Chicago Bears to finish around .500 and stay relevant in the race for the final two NFC Playoff spots.
Atlanta’s final six games are no longer a cake walk, as the Falcons have four NFC South Games (Carolina twice, @Tampa Bay, New Orleans), the AFC South contending Jacksonville Jaguars on the road, and the NFC North leading Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
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The Atlanta Falcons will not have RB Devonta Freeman, K Matt Bryant, and WR Leonard Hankerson for this crucial NFC game. Thankfully, Atlanta gets the Vikings at home. Who knows how the Falcons would handle playing in cold Minneapolis this time of year?
Looking at the home stretch of the Atlanta Falcons’ 2015 regular season schedule, should Atlanta go 4-2 they should make the NFC Playoffs at no worse than the 2nd NFC Wild Card at 10-6. Going 3-3 further complicates things, as while a 9-7 record could stand as enough to get into postseason, it could also leave a team on the outside looking in.
It’s hard to differentiate which win is more important, as all six games can either help or hurt the Falcons’ playoff fate, but if Atlanta has to win two games, they need to beat Minnesota on Sunday at home and Tampa Bay on the road next week. Holding a tiebreaker over the Vikings seems increasingly important down the stretch. Atlanta cannot afford to go 0-2 versus the Bucs in 2015, especially since they’ve put themselves in the Wild Card hunt.
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While the Atlanta Falcons can still certainly make the NFC Playoffs, they going to have to start winning some of the these close games, they will have to make a divot in divisional play, and they’ll need some of their NFC competitors to mess up along the way. One thing is certain, 6-4 Atlanta is not catching 11-0 Carolina in 2015. The Wild Card it is then…Go Falcons, Rise Up!